NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: Texans (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d47744a7aa2644e9723563a5c3489f1347f3e8227391a6499b40ee7a36dc915
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Steelersof Texans, Steelers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Texans | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Steelers | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Texans | 1c | 8,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 2cpaid | +931.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…fce3backed Steelers | 53c | 3,825$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,816.05 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8333…eb93backed Texans | 47c | 1,989$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.06 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Texans | 48c | 1,114$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.82 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Texans | 49c | 1,066$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.47 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Texans | 48c | 697.92$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…f311backed Steelers | 51c | 686.27$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.27 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Steelers | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…60a9backed Texans | 9c | 279.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Steelers | 52c | 210$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Steelers | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Texans | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 124 | 47.6%59 W · 65 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b56…7ababacked Texans | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Steelers | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed Steelers | 52c | 95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Texans | 50c | 83.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Steelers | 52c | 83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Steelers | 50c | 55.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Texans | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Texans | 48c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…8260backed Texans | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Steelers | 51c | 38.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Texans | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Texans | 41c | 37.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7c…1214backed Texans | 48c | 37.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Texans | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…e450backed Texans | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Steelers | 54c | 33.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Steelers | 50c | 33.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Steelers | 58c | 30.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Texans | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed Texans | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bbe8backed Texans | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…586abacked Texans | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Steelers | 78c | 25.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed Texans | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f7…e73bbacked Steelers | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Steelers | 67c | 17.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Texans (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Texans (-1.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-3.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-6.5)Texans won
- Texans Team Total: O/U 20.5Over won
- Texans vs. SteelersTexans won
- Texans vs. Steelers: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Texans vs. Steelers: 1H O/U 19.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 36.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 38.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 39.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 40.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.