TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 38.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$936,696
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$942,122

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $936,696 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Over50c419,413$209,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209,683.643348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Under50c250,000$125,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125,0004955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Over50c200,000$100,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,0001338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under50c189,553$94,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94,776.3312055.8%67 W · 53 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Over49c171,598$84,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,083.261656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Under51c61,500$31,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,134.9927454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Under51c60,000$30,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,40017647.7%84 W · 92 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5efe…569dbacked Over50c52,800$26,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,40010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Under50c40,000$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,00024652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under50c38,545$19,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,157.731,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cbf…6cf0backed Over49c24,255$11,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,884.93560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,00075852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,00024056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Under50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,00011750.4%59 W · 58 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44e6…9d9ebacked Under51c19,576$9,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,592.356162.3%38 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under50c15,439$7,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,719.3756852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Under51c12,222$6,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,988.782369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Under51c11,111$5,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,444.3717454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under50c10,143$5,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,067.854451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00013560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Under50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd661…6e34backed Under53c9,427$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,426.681442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under50c9,200$4,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,572.1977052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Under50c7,910$3,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9552638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Under52c6,949$3,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,354.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5672…5019backed Over48c6,875$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,299.795141.2%21 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b49…d0dfbacked Under51c5,252$2,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,573.561457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under51c4,566$2,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,237.349447.9%45 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Over49c4,317$2,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,115.322263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb973…ff16backed Over49c4,082$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.173240.6%13 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Under50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00037350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4124…8af2backed Under53c3,290$1,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.693943.6%17 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Under50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5003036.7%11 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Under51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4702740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-24.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Under51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.9826547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Under51c2,596$1,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,271.881266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Under51c2,288$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.9314757.1%84 W · 63 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under50c2,196$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,088.1839447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Over49c2,143$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0503740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Under51c2,100$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02925744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under50c2,003$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.3213756.2%77 W · 60 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8289…2b2ebacked Under50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0002955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Under50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00010156.4%57 W · 44 L+7.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a02…1a9dbacked Over49c1,568$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.51425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Over50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7503652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Under52c1,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72022446.4%104 W · 120 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Under50c1,400$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7004348.8%21 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under50c1,196$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5981,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x00e0…8a94backed Over49c990.22$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.323351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Under51c800$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3902045%9 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40013959%82 W · 57 L+12.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x04ac…c7b0backed Under52c750$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcddb…0d22backed Under51c725.88$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.681553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa408…d831backed Under53c656.98$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.385347.2%25 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4388…58dabacked Under51c650$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x162f…585abacked Over50c633.12$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.561154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+30.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Under52c600$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.41per pick42cpaid+80.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Under51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2946246.8%29 W · 33 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Under52c576.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.9215855.7%88 W · 70 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07bc…393abacked Under51c572.7$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.622231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under50c555.21$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.565048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Over49c551.22$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.13253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Over48c540$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.239242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Under51c525$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.256663.6%42 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+30.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Over12c520.85$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.332931%9 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+61.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over48c520.83$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504734%16 W · 31 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-29.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x68d2…92c8backed Under51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f0…7e22backed Over50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.29per pick53cpaid+63.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over27c484.52$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.8260049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Under53c471.7$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.75947.5%28 W · 31 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-7.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b28…66f0backed Under51c460.78$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.783650%18 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under50c420$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21014060.7%85 W · 55 L+14.3wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+23.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under50c420$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21017656.3%99 W · 77 L+16.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+21.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under50c420$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21011758.1%68 W · 49 L+9.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under50c402$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20153253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Over49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19613641.2%56 W · 80 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea93…d9bdbacked Under51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1961735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20020555.6%114 W · 91 L+15.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Under50c398$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19911452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over49c397.96$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19519651.5%101 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Under51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.165550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ca…5ed4backed Under52c385$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.8540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc626…2beabacked Under52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.626546.2%30 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+55.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88cf…469fbacked Under53c380$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1801729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-45.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96d9…18a0backed Under57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.88966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+54%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf9f…60aebacked Over49c350.08$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed Under52c346.15$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.151361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over43c339.88$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.1573651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x019e…af1dbacked Under51c333$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.175343.4%23 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under50c330$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16512057.5%69 W · 51 L+9.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under50c330$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16511859.3%70 W · 48 L+11.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Under50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15016957.4%97 W · 72 L+15.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15010752.3%56 W · 51 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x329c…18dfbacked Under50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+33.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb595…ee68backed Over49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under51c299.98$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.9911640.5%47 W · 69 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8333…eb93backed Under51c263.6$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.162437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over47c255.76$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.7623647%111 W · 125 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12510353.4%55 W · 48 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.