NFL · resolved market
Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 39.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74fe02dad394c6fa3dbee82b97af32ea8cd0b6773a66c3ca3063039e46384c72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 54c | 37,975$20,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,468.48 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 46c | 36,366$16,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,728.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 46c | 3,500$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 46c | 3,134$1,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.64 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3915…b03ebacked Over | 6c | 2,561$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 2,194$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.05 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Over | 25c | 2,016$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.51 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 54c | 1,822$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.12 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 54c | 1,689$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.94 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…5344backed Over | 46c | 1,472$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 73c | 1,428$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.29 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 36c | 657.17$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.56 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Under | 57c | 600$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 77c | 527.98$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.2 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8289…2b2ebacked Under | 53c | 472.12$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.89 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked Over | 9c | 408.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Over | 45c | 400$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.26 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Under | 69c | 306.69$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.31 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 54c | 279.96$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.96 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…a928backed Under | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 41c | 258.38$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.94 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked Over | 45c | 253.46$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…9b01backed Under | 55c | 221$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.45 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over | 46c | 218.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.37 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x248d…46a2backed Over | 11c | 211.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Over | 45c | 201.82$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Over | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…119dbacked Over | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Under | 66c | 182.64$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 55c | 177$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…ce09backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 46c | 163.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8b…b6f1backed Over | 46c | 163.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Over | 19c | 145$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 126.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Under | 55c | 109.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Under | 56c | 103.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1c…c085backed Under | 56c | 100.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Under | 55c | 82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…0accbacked Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 46c | 78.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 45c | 75.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…97b7backed Over | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 54c | 67.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…fd19backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 73c | 63.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 55c | 55.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Under | 56c | 53.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked Over | 45c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Over | 45c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…3acebacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…dbc5backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…564fbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Over | 47c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 46c | 36.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Over | 43c | 35.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Over | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Over | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 39.5this page
- 1H Spread: Texans (-1.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Texans (-1.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-3.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-6.5)Texans won
- Texans Team Total: O/U 20.5Over won
- Texans vs. SteelersTexans won
- Texans vs. Steelers: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Texans vs. Steelers: 1H O/U 19.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 36.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 38.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 40.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.