TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

49ers vs. Eagles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
49ersof 49ers, Eagles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,540,367
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,869,362

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,540,367 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,936 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Eagles70c437,149$304,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304,099.362025%5 W · 15 L-5.3wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-54.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked 49ers30c310,191$93,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216,676.247554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked 49ers31c300,000$93,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207,0001338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94f0…cd31backed Eagles69c276,950$191,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191,095.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked 49ers31c275,000$85,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189,749.894250%21 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed 49ers32c217,991$69,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148,392.3612055.8%67 W · 53 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Eagles69c190,707$132,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132,295.0424957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Eagles43c185,118$80,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,323.415154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed 49ers61c184,976$112,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,177.1416955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked 49ers30c183,377$55,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127,863.215431.5%17 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Eagles68c140,855$96,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,190.2117454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed 49ers30c139,044$42,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,685.647348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked 49ers31c134,075$41,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,677.851154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed 49ers37c127,690$47,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80,349.0423244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Eagles73c109,135$79,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,733.9375852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2107…8f4cbacked Eagles69c103,174$71,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,4972369.6%16 W · 7 L+5.2wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+53.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Eagles69c100,000$69,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,0001145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed 49ers42c94,015$39,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,473.4920755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Eagles70c90,833$63,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,433.5719152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked 49ers31c87,723$27,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,661.4947738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce4…bb71backed Eagles71c78,050$55,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,263.84475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed 49ers33c75,582$24,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,675.953040%12 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c81…fce3backed Eagles68c74,677$50,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,931.055250%26 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Eagles69c71,778$49,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,486.746764.2%43 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Eagles70c59,115$41,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,330.1128447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Eagles68c55,740$38,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,119.3339447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Eagles70c54,084$37,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,681.729447.9%45 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked 49ers32c51,356$16,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,989.321,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked 49ers29c50,811$14,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,075.612144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed 49ers34c50,000$16,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,099.866459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Eagles75c48,576$36,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,626.983070%21 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4be1…aa70backed 49ers31c48,261$14,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,296.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed 49ers30c47,712$14,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,248.6123937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Eagles69c45,341$31,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,272.2630043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked 49ers24c44,813$10,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,266.0133328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x166a…e675backed 49ers25c40,643$9,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,646.51050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked 49ers31c38,668$11,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,723.647736.4%28 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Eagles52c38,508$20,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,117.0420026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf267…e0e1backed 49ers32c38,222$12,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,991.091136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x635c…45c6backed Eagles79c37,898$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,00050%0 W · 5 L-3.1wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked 49ers33c35,580$11,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,838.885453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Eagles67c35,000$23,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,45031240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0026…aef7backed 49ers68c34,777$23,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,201.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Eagles75c34,400$25,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,829.972965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+30.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed 49ers32c32,753$10,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,27218650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58a0…2b5bbacked 49ers31c32,552$10,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,460.617034.3%24 W · 46 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x60cc…ff9bbacked 49ers31c32,006$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,006.05520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked 49ers32c31,417$9,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,494.7353348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed 49ers30c30,000$9,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,899.9914342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Eagles68c30,000$20,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,459.982740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-24.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Eagles69c30,000$20,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,699.796219.4%12 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-43%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3214…63d6backed 49ers35c29,685$10,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,170.18736.8%32 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac47…d234backed 49ers42c27,059$11,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,694.21580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+63.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked 49ers31c26,252$8,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,114.211544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe796…7f5ebacked 49ers23c25,703$5,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,857.383724.3%9 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed 49ers60c25,000$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,999.978747.1%41 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed 49ers31c24,493$7,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,944.982544%11 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcec3…b76dbacked 49ers26c23,982$6,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,746.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed 49ers29c23,216$6,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,441.5911643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Eagles72c22,000$15,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,854.9136246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0a…4a63backed 49ers32c20,578$6,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,993.341233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc153…6c8bbacked Eagles69c20,300$14,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,006.88728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick60cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Eagles74c20,080$14,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,858.868164.2%52 W · 29 L+12.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+137.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked 49ers24c20,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,2004358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Eagles69c20,000$13,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,80083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Eagles69c20,000$13,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,80017348%83 W · 90 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Eagles68c20,000$13,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,599.967042.9%30 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a6…0009backed 49ers56c19,847$11,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,799.431450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed 49ers41c19,498$8,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,480.8223850.8%121 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed 49ers36c19,365$6,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,406.135356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked 49ers60c19,297$11,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,769.3612748%61 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed 49ers25c19,000$4,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,249.982437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Eagles73c17,072$12,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,50014252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 49ers37c16,938$6,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,712.5327348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb13…37cdbacked 49ers31c16,122$4,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,124.27520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Eagles68c16,000$10,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,919.783351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed 49ers56c15,685$8,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,831.9160049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…9ab5backed 49ers32c15,638$5,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,633.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+60%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed 49ers32c15,625$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,6251414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-64.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7509…4b9dbacked 49ers32c15,625$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,6253630.6%11 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked 49ers32c15,625$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,6253844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Eagles63c15,478$9,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,724.4127644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9106…afcbbacked 49ers30c15,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,499.872133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-34.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x67d2…eb89backed 49ers22c14,501$3,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,284.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+125.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Eagles58c13,701$7,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,891.27255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Eagles65c13,343$8,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,682.7631848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked 49ers31c13,006$4,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,980.748454.8%46 W · 38 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd200…06b1backed 49ers40c13,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,799.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed 49ers54c12,894$6,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,956.4673651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Eagles69c12,750$8,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,747.420661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4487…1ec1backed 49ers32c12,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,1602218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-45.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b8c…1556backed Eagles38c12,000$4,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,559.982433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Eagles69c11,761$8,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,106.6112744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a70…3a16backed Eagles40c11,728$4,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,734.24333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x188c…c62bbacked 49ers44c11,357$4,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,359.822564%16 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd661…6e34backed Eagles69c11,158$7,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,6691442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed 49ers26c10,937$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,137.1616036.3%58 W · 102 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd289…079fbacked Eagles75c10,547$7,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,9001747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6919…5effbacked Eagles70c10,467$7,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,326.924852.1%25 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31ac…392cbacked 49ers25c10,009$2,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,507.126743.3%29 W · 38 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+39.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.