NFL · resolved market
Spread: Eagles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39659efe6f71d89d0add8385a65b2dad1e0ead2ff8637b3862313b6687197199
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof Eagles, 49ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed 49ers | 31c | 4,218$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,910.44 | 165 | 45.5%75 W · 90 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Eagles | 69c | 1,449$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Eagles | 69c | 1,449$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac5…c4d0backed Eagles | 69c | 1,374$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf410…ca73backed 49ers | 34c | 930.31$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Eagles | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Eagles | 69c | 725.06$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.33 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed 49ers | 31c | 531.82$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.83 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Eagles | 66c | 472.73$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Eagles | 61c | 451$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.71 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed 49ers | 39c | 416$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.76 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked 49ers | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb496…fd45backed 49ers | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Eagles | 66c | 289.71$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.21 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed 49ers | 31c | 250$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Eagles | 54c | 170$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 141 | 58.9%83 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e73…b728backed 49ers | 36c | 139.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.23 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 51cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Eagles | 64c | 136.55$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Eagles | 69c | 86.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 49ers | 50c | 80.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Eagles | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed 49ers | 39c | 79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Eagles | 65c | 69.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed 49ers | 42c | 66.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f5…353ebacked 49ers | 47c | 64.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +7.4wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Eagles | 66c | 59.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 49ers | 30c | 56.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd107…add5backed 49ers | 34c | 49.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed 49ers | 36c | 44.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…efcbbacked Eagles | 68c | 43.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3a…b091backed Eagles | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed 49ers | 37c | 39.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.1wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed 49ers | 35c | 37.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Eagles | 65c | 36.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed 49ers | 36c | 32.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Eagles | 32c | 31.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1760…c4edbacked Eagles | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…5601backed Eagles | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Eagles (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Eagles (-3.5)49ers won
- 49ers vs. Eagles49ers won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: 1H MoneylineEagles won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: 1H O/U 22.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 41.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 42.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 43.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 44.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 45.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 46.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 47.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 49.5Under won
- Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5Under won
- Spread: Eagles (-3.5)49ers won
- Spread: Eagles (-4.5)49ers won
- Spread: Eagles (-6.5)49ers won
- Spread: Eagles (-7.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.