TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 47.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,508
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,843

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,508 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xabb8…bba3backed Under52c3,348$1,741 inWon+$1,607.048747.1%41 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Over48c3,333$1,600 inLost-$1,599.847164.8%46 W · 25 L+10.7wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+33.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under60c580.64$348 inWon+$232.2677052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed Over40c500$200 inLost-$2002755.6%15 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+39.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Over39c363.93$142 inLost-$141.933847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ac…6ac9backed Under61c363.93$222 inWon+$141.932751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over52c203.61$106 inLost-$106.2835648%171 W · 185 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed Under48c157.88$76 inWon+$82.12437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over38c149.45$57 inLost-$56.7927633.3%92 W · 184 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x40a7…ecb7backed Over48c124.98$60 inLost-$60.095850%29 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb338…606ebacked Over46c99.98$46 inLost-$45.994949%24 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under53c99.7$53 inWon+$46.6673651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under53c80.76$43 inWon+$37.8613449.3%66 W · 68 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bea…82fcbacked Under62c80.65$50 inWon+$30.65650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under62c68.81$43 inWon+$26.156570.8%46 W · 19 L+11.6wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+35.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Under47c40$19 inWon+$21.43036.7%11 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9b89…bc8cbacked Under80c30$24 inWon+$62080%16 W · 4 L+4.1wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+36.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Under44c29.83$13 inWon+$16.753467.6%23 W · 11 L+8.2wins+0.24per pick44cpaid+60.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.