NFL · resolved market

49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 49.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81b8a167c56749aa607c84c3734b6ae99937ba2b80056c40266951b3fd9b02c9

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 11, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $54,588
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $63,554

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,588 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x56fc…733ebacked Under	67c	18,774$12,582 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,192.54	26	80.8%21 W · 5 L	+5.5wins	+0.21per pick	59cpaid	+37.3%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	32c	13,003$4,215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,215.39	502	42.4%213 W · 289 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Under	57c	8,333$4,783 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,549.86	87	47.1%41 W · 46 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Over	10c	5,745$599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$598.71	127	48%61 W · 66 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	43c	5,374$2,295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,294.84	736	51.2%377 W · 359 L	+25.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over	35c	4,084$1,429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,429.4	533	48.4%258 W · 275 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b02…f3d9backed Under	47c	2,003$948 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,054.45	211	51.2%108 W · 103 L	+12.3wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	40c	1,894$760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$760.23	600	49.3%296 W · 304 L	+21.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over	30c	1,862$551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$551.22	315	43.2%136 W · 179 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa511…18a3backed Under	71c	1,840$1,309 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$530.49	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Over	33c	1,695$556 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$555.8	207	57.5%119 W · 88 L	+17.5wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Over	34c	1,241$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.71	69	34.8%24 W · 45 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Under	68c	816.84$555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$261.84	76	61.8%47 W · 29 L	+5.3wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over	34c	735$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.9	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-3.6wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e9c…ab4cbacked Under	67c	600.63$404 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.61	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Over	47c	504$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.86	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+2.9wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Over	21c	436.06$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.83	36	58.3%21 W · 15 L	+4.4wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Over	54c	405.04$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.72	42	61.9%26 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Over	22c	396$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.62	294	39.5%116 W · 178 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over	46c	365.42$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.27	120	55.8%67 W · 53 L	+9.0wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+15%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Under	38c	350$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215.5	205	42%86 W · 119 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+35.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	32c	336.07$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.54	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ec8…397bbacked Over	32c	305$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.77	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over	29c	304.18$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.71	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed Over	35c	300.22$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.08	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Over	35c	299$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.65	119	46.2%55 W · 64 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	34c	291$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.94	473	48.4%229 W · 244 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x125e…583fbacked Over	40c	279$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.03	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-2.7wins	-0.16per pick	45cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Under	65c	270$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.5	268	57.1%153 W · 115 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40a7…ecb7backed Under	42c	260$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.4	58	50%29 W · 29 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over	29c	250$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.3	62	38.7%24 W · 38 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68bf…3e67backed Under	49c	230.85$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.73	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over	33c	214.01$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.58	276	33.3%92 W · 184 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Under	68c	193$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.07	196	51.5%101 W · 95 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	33c	188$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.04	314	50%157 W · 157 L	+9.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over	34c	166.46$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.6	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-5.1wins	-0.21per pick	38cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over	62c	159.15$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.07	647	47.3%306 W · 341 L	+42.5wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x00e0…8a94backed Over	34c	151.52$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.52	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9038…f74cbacked Under	66c	151.52$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.52	61	39.3%24 W · 37 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2e…e72cbacked Under	67c	131.91$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.53	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+49.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8c…237dbacked Over	41c	111$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.75	47	68.1%32 W · 15 L	+9.6wins	+0.20per pick	48cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x4fb3…05e5backed Over	36c	110.51$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	87	33.3%29 W · 58 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf3a…47debacked Over	35c	102.62$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.11	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.20per pick	54cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	67c	96.13$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.02	65	70.8%46 W · 19 L	+11.6wins	+0.18per pick	53cpaid	+35.2%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over	41c	82.84$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.99	342	47.4%162 W · 180 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed1…efcbbacked Over	51c	78.41$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Over	28c	70.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-20%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb24e…a2e5backed Under	76c	65.79$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.79	62	54.8%34 W · 28 L	+5.1wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	33c	65.49$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.87	163	49.7%81 W · 82 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over	21c	63.98$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.16	488	47.5%232 W · 256 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c94…1b47backed Under	67c	61.19$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.19	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b89…bc8cbacked Under	56c	60$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.1	20	80%16 W · 4 L	+4.1wins	+0.20per pick	60cpaid	+36.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9363…fbfabacked Under	68c	60$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.2	38	60.5%23 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under	68c	58$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.56	108	58.3%63 W · 45 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe533…8d18backed Over	35c	57.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	+3.6wins	+0.09per pick	37cpaid	-1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Over	58c	56.85$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.97	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+12%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df1…54ccbacked Over	24c	50.41$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.22per pick	33cpaid	-78%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b9e…cb21backed Over	49c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Under	60c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	-12.1wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-39%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Over	32c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	50	40%20 W · 30 L	-4.5wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Under	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	120	50.8%61 W · 59 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe43b…f955backed Under	42c	47.44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.44	47	48.9%23 W · 24 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Under	45c	44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.35	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.6wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+30%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0685…2b0cbacked Over	34c	44$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.83	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2328…e304backed Over	36c	43.18$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.7	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Over	28c	41.26$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.38	144	4.9%7 W · 137 L	-10.8wins	-0.07per pick	12cpaid	-71.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	33c	41$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.53	568	52.3%297 W · 271 L	+26.3wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Over	28c	40$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.05	323	47.4%153 W · 170 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Under	36c	40$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.8	15	80%12 W · 3 L	+3.2wins	+0.21per pick	59cpaid	+47.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Over	35c	39.5$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.92	310	32.6%101 W · 209 L	-8.9wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8013…5b52backed Under	66c	35.29$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a58…149dbacked Over	35c	32.32$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-2.7wins	-0.16per pick	51cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8490…3243backed Under	67c	31.34$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.34	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+2.0wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Under	67c	30.06$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.06	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6894…59d8backed Over	35c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	172	55.2%95 W · 77 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x754d…893bbacked Under	76c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df1…7ba9backed Under	67c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.9	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x396a…d87ebacked Over	60c	25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	14	78.6%11 W · 3 L	+4.8wins	+0.34per pick	45cpaid	+94.7%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under	54c	20.18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.18	134	49.3%66 W · 68 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Under	66c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.8	84	51.2%43 W · 41 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 49.5this page
1H Spread: Eagles (-3.5)49ers won
49ers vs. Eagles49ers won
49ers vs. Eagles: 1H MoneylineEagles won
49ers vs. Eagles: 1H O/U 22.5Over won
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 41.5Over won
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 42.5Under won
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 43.5Under won
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 44.5Under won
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 45.5Under won
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 46.5Under won
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 47.5Under won
Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5Under won
Spread: Eagles (-1.5)49ers won
Spread: Eagles (-3.5)49ers won
Spread: Eagles (-4.5)49ers won
Spread: Eagles (-6.5)49ers won
Spread: Eagles (-7.5)49ers won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 49.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event