NFL · resolved market
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9efa87c25dc769e822199781ba8c332517f9da0db9ef3fb0c8655ad8943cd373
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Under | 56c | 6,258$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,757.84 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 6,049$2,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,667.62 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 48c | 2,084$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.24 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.04 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 55c | 636.36$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.36 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 54c | 558.61$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.96 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 44c | 486.57$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.09 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 45c | 439.09$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.59 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 44c | 400$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Under | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Under | 54c | 217$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…ecb7backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…18a3backed Under | 55c | 89.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 44c | 89.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +15.3wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 105 | 65.7%69 W · 36 L | +16.6wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 56c | 58.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 65 | 70.8%46 W · 19 L | +11.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1afdbacked Under | 55c | 35.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 44c | 35.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…269fbacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 45c | 33.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Under | 52c | 32.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a59…e94cbacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 46c | 27.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 45.5this page
- 1H Spread: Eagles (-3.5)49ers won
- 49ers vs. Eagles49ers won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: 1H MoneylineEagles won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: 1H O/U 22.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 41.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 42.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 43.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 44.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 46.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 47.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 49.5Under won
- Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5Under won
- Spread: Eagles (-1.5)49ers won
- Spread: Eagles (-3.5)49ers won
- Spread: Eagles (-4.5)49ers won
- Spread: Eagles (-6.5)49ers won
- Spread: Eagles (-7.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.