NFL · resolved market
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 41.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x302fa027649a4831fdd33914e4054d2dff57a1471f773eb4f52325ae0c07ec32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 7,595$3,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,110.08 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed Over | 59c | 4,000$2,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Over | 58c | 2,152$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.53 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 44c | 1,797$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.88 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…1d61backed Over | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.67 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Over | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 40c | 819.39$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.25 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 50c | 405$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…f098backed Over | 61c | 145.9$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…3be4backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…fb86backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812e…04d0backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 13c | 85.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc923…5f12backed Over | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Under | 19c | 57.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 42c | 54.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Over | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -8.0wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6da0…48f9backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Under | 42c | 33.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0b…0874backed Over | 60c | 30.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 40c | 30.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f3…d80abacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 41.5this page
- 1H Spread: Eagles (-3.5)49ers won
- 49ers vs. Eagles49ers won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: 1H MoneylineEagles won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: 1H O/U 22.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 42.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 43.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 44.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 45.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 46.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 47.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 49.5Under won
- Christian McCaffrey: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5Under won
- Spread: Eagles (-1.5)49ers won
- Spread: Eagles (-3.5)49ers won
- Spread: Eagles (-4.5)49ers won
- Spread: Eagles (-6.5)49ers won
- Spread: Eagles (-7.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.