TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
USAof Dominican Rep., USA
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,371,366

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,371,366 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 907 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5395…fdccbacked Dominican Rep.1c231,737$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,120.21333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-49%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc6b6…13acbacked USA55c144,466$79,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,009.7650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Dominican Rep.46c130,213$59,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,930.9123351.1%119 W · 114 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce2e…1519backed USA54c73,298$39,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,717.261070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed USA54c61,639$33,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,219.135244.2%23 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18a7…98ecbacked Dominican Rep.50c40,971$20,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,491.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Dominican Rep.46c39,999$18,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,199.5753150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed USA54c34,594$18,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,973.9460451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed USA59c20,610$12,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,450.5321842.7%93 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked USA53c20,201$10,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,442.471136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Dominican Rep.46c20,000$9,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,149.921,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed USA53c19,999$10,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,399.76757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+21.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Dominican Rep.46c19,690$9,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,057.44252.4%22 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed USA54c19,640$10,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,974.43461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xceec…4ad9backed Dominican Rep.46c19,565$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,999.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed USA53c19,012$10,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,873.6431149.2%153 W · 158 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed USA54c15,162$8,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,974.714573.3%33 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed USA54c13,599$7,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,255.325354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf26…39a6backed Dominican Rep.46c13,204$6,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,079.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Dominican Rep.41c12,795$5,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,198.730%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Dominican Rep.16c12,440$1,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,991.3716725.1%42 W · 125 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked USA53c12,400$6,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,811.6346547.1%219 W · 246 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed USA66c12,139$7,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,16015550.3%78 W · 77 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Dominican Rep.47c12,126$5,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,739.423826.3%10 W · 28 L-6.9wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-42.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Dominican Rep.46c12,000$5,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,559.9713534.1%46 W · 89 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Dominican Rep.46c11,127$5,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,118.383740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Dominican Rep.46c10,614$4,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,882.441241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked USA54c10,040$5,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,598.1111456.1%64 W · 50 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Dominican Rep.45c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5006350.8%32 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Dominican Rep.46c10,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,60015148.3%73 W · 78 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x881b…9893backed Dominican Rep.36c9,558$3,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,444.932630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Dominican Rep.13c9,056$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.1485235.8%305 W · 547 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbab8…050bbacked USA56c9,037$5,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,019.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+80.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed USA58c8,989$5,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,739.5712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9087…457bbacked USA51c7,790$3,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,821.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed USA55c7,727$4,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,477.2724551.8%127 W · 118 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Dominican Rep.46c6,571$3,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,022.6184049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed USA48c6,567$3,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,439.081435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Dominican Rep.45c6,405$2,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,882.2523538.3%90 W · 145 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed USA54c6,221$3,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,861.68666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked USA54c6,200$3,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,851.9744451.1%227 W · 217 L+1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Dominican Rep.47c6,009$2,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,82426245.8%120 W · 142 L-17.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed USA53c6,000$3,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,824.047753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed USA54c5,909$3,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,71832152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcad…df78backed USA49c5,796$2,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,938.810930.3%33 W · 76 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefa3…d08bbacked USA64c5,720$3,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,043.882763%17 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Dominican Rep.45c5,594$2,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,516.8914953%79 W · 70 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Dominican Rep.23c5,569$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.251,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f82…9ae1backed Dominican Rep.46c5,435$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500.0722948.9%112 W · 117 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed Dominican Rep.44c5,330$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3501136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47c6…42d8backed Dominican Rep.33c5,304$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,748.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca28…54a7backed Dominican Rep.46c5,156$2,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,371.68875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Dominican Rep.46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Dominican Rep.45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca1…57e4backed USA55c4,817$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,167.815448.1%26 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7837…40f1backed Dominican Rep.47c4,728$2,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,222450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked USA70c4,657$3,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,404.425747.4%27 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a3…3979backed Dominican Rep.33c4,571$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,518.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3100…9bc9backed Dominican Rep.46c4,349$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.021637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid+42.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70cf…f6cebacked Dominican Rep.29c4,322$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.99119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick32cpaid-71.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Dominican Rep.46c4,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,840.1298149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b9…0fc9backed USA54c4,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8401050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd36…6ec9backed USA53c3,903$2,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,825.622254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+64.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82cf…3d55backed USA53c3,814$2,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,809.363455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9cb…bdcdbacked USA54c3,704$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,703.71526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.26per pick53cpaid-56.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked USA54c3,704$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,703.7944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed USA62c3,520$2,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.625040%20 W · 30 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x50c1…b76bbacked Dominican Rep.46c3,432$1,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,578.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed USA45c3,224$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.3923036.1%83 W · 147 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8861…4c2ebacked Dominican Rep.47c3,191$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed Dominican Rep.46c3,191$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+43.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76a8…73c8backed Dominican Rep.47c3,185$1,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,49710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9028…540dbacked Dominican Rep.32c3,125$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0238…ba26backed Dominican Rep.46c3,088$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420.48250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Dominican Rep.47c3,072$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4442147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed USA78c3,070$2,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.8896133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb68b…9b23backed Dominican Rep.46c3,061$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,408.022254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked USA53c3,050$1,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,433.51,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66cb…618ebacked Dominican Rep.33c2,962$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bc6…66d3backed Dominican Rep.35c2,857$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fa8…d618backed Dominican Rep.51c2,771$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.711233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f70…9f21backed Dominican Rep.44c2,761$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe77b…f10abacked Dominican Rep.47c2,664$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.931338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+52.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked USA64c2,641$1,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.416749.3%33 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd33…bfc0backed Dominican Rep.54c2,595$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.0940%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x98c2…4a9ebacked Dominican Rep.19c2,590$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked USA52c2,560$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.571,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Dominican Rep.47c2,555$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.851,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0231…f72bbacked Dominican Rep.45c2,389$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.04922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-68%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1804…7fa8backed Dominican Rep.47c2,357$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.63633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85f1…86f8backed Dominican Rep.46c2,332$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed USA55c2,304$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.647843.6%34 W · 44 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed USA55c2,286$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.615149%25 W · 26 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb64…5e23backed USA55c2,267$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.27580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+71.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7950…73c2backed Dominican Rep.47c2,188$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca4…51cebacked USA55c2,181$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.576100%6 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+99.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x70fc…8fb5backed USA53c2,174$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.09580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+51%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc875…ff98backed Dominican Rep.47c2,153$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb050…8a12backed Dominican Rep.46c2,148$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Dominican Rep.34c2,137$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.429837.8%37 W · 61 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+29.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.