Us Politics · resolved market
US-China trade deal before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa757b564604c0abb02fcaf167d93130fe635c223021bfe9d6b95433ab8347d55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,453,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,466,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,453,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,347 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f53…aaf4backed No | 0c | 171,375$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 75c | 169,162$126,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,868.7 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 69c | 153,631$106,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,442.52 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…12f6backed No | 62c | 149,801$92,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92,136.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…235bbacked No | 62c | 116,403$71,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71,934.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 65c | 105,555$68,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68,996.14 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3098…f905backed No | 0c | 99,100$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 75c | 78,680$58,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,783.59 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…7ef2backed No | 6c | 72,779$4,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,346.86 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…b042backed No | 34c | 69,347$23,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,546.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bc…9be9backed Yes | 76c | 61,945$47,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,597.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 19c | 60,000$11,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,363.92 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb38…ce37backed No | 23c | 59,206$13,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,909.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 40c | 55,853$22,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,330.48 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6b…9390backed Yes | 66c | 54,837$36,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,663.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2660…8ac6backed Yes | 35c | 54,323$19,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,309.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8719backed No | 65c | 54,323$35,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,309.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 77c | 51,825$40,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,670.38 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f97…555fbacked Yes | 33c | 48,002$15,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,161.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…ec65backed No | 67c | 48,002$32,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,161.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8910…ae6ebacked No | 8c | 42,223$3,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,382.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 22c | 38,750$8,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,304.15 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed No | 77c | 34,000$26,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,195.71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…2a99backed No | 64c | 31,429$20,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,267.15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 33c | 30,000$9,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,244.72 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f51ebacked No | 7c | 30,000$2,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,013.28 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 26c | 28,499$7,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,091.55 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 44c | 24,472$10,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,769.88 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 30c | 23,477$7,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,332.78 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 77c | 23,215$17,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,286.33 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…54e6backed No | 44c | 23,194$10,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,283.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 68c | 22,290$15,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,137.76 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd68a…3311backed No | 50c | 21,825$10,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,839.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 44c | 21,815$9,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,316.8 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 22c | 21,200$4,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,601.96 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…6d9cbacked No | 0c | 21,027$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 65c | 20,504$13,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,075.7 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc62…978dbacked No | 37c | 20,327$7,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,477.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 57c | 19,849$11,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,600.08 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 31c | 19,600$6,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,535.91 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 43c | 19,343$8,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,067.08 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 50c | 17,314$8,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,612.23 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…06f4backed No | 0c | 16,780$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 33c | 16,227$5,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,901.45 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…6cfdbacked Yes | 50c | 15,689$7,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,800.55 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.36per pick | 42cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 59c | 15,681$9,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,493.75 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 30c | 15,585$4,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,973.72 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 57c | 14,986$8,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,445.28 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9d…4cc1backed No | 79c | 14,160$11,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,138.72 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 59c | 14,030$8,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,763.86 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 52c | 13,887$7,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,724.62 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 63c | 13,388$8,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,887.76 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddcd…5581backed Yes | 30c | 12,486$3,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,717.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3e…3d75backed No | 63c | 12,130$7,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,619.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…9370backed Yes | 25c | 11,721$2,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,818.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 31c | 11,308$3,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,838.63 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…d091backed No | 0c | 11,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 55c | 10,791$5,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,809.36 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 43c | 10,741$4,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,652.87 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed No | 2c | 10,200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b5…280cbacked Yes | 25c | 10,153$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,653.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 35c | 10,000$3,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,477.2 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb843…1b3fbacked Yes | 74c | 10,000$7,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfa…2653backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 55c | 9,979$5,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,466.64 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 63c | 9,610$6,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,076.04 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…238fbacked No | 64c | 9,303$5,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,930.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 33c | 9,222$3,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,206.79 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes | 26c | 9,135$2,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,756.87 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 47c | 8,827$4,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,671.39 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 40c | 8,517$3,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,073.45 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked No | 54c | 8,374$4,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,561.55 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd641…e37cbacked No | 33c | 8,080$2,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,658 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c594backed Yes | 33c | 7,891$2,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,285.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +134.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…7b2ebacked No | 78c | 7,689$6,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,029.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 21c | 7,654$1,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,055.54 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked No | 11c | 7,640$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…e677backed Yes | 59c | 7,561$4,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,088.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Yes | 71c | 7,537$5,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,189.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef5…7e05backed Yes | 60c | 7,499$4,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,999.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 74c | 7,431$5,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,513.76 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 76c | 7,374$5,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,595.06 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 27c | 7,220$1,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,915.95 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…54a5backed No | 51c | 7,165$3,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,645.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4096…1740backed No | 38c | 7,163$2,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,710.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed No | 5c | 7,140$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 33c | 7,042$2,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,736.09 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes | 31c | 6,937$2,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,784.95 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 35c | 6,912$2,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,497.98 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe352…f259backed Yes | 31c | 6,900$2,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,736.2 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae2…8c70backed No | 0c | 6,675$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 46c | 6,632$3,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,586.03 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 39c | 6,602$2,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,998.3 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1779…4822backed No | 79c | 6,584$5,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,206.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…273bbacked Yes | 35c | 6,438$2,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,205.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 78c | 6,380$4,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,986.14 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…014cbacked No | 75c | 6,326$4,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,731.27 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed No | 40c | 6,174$2,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,482.85 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 37c | 6,138$2,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,860.66 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.