TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

US-China trade deal before June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,453,588
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,466,432

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,453,588 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,347 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f53…aaf4backed No0c171,375$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes75c169,162$126,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,868.741238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes69c153,631$106,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,442.526526.2%17 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d61…12f6backed No62c149,801$92,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92,136.07425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-68.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x540d…235bbacked No62c116,403$71,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,934.02728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed No65c105,555$68,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,996.143839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid+30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3098…f905backed No0c99,100$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes75c78,680$58,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,783.5912630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x218f…7ef2backed No6c72,779$4,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,346.862254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0856…b042backed No34c69,347$23,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,546.07560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+82.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7bc…9be9backed Yes76c61,945$47,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,597.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No19c60,000$11,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,363.927740.3%31 W · 46 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb38…ce37backed No23c59,206$13,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,909.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-51.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes40c55,853$22,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,330.487041.4%29 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e6b…9390backed Yes66c54,837$36,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,663.45742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2660…8ac6backed Yes35c54,323$19,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,309.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+67.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa38e…8719backed No65c54,323$35,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,309.9530%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes77c51,825$40,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,670.386145.9%28 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f97…555fbacked Yes33c48,002$15,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,161.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57bc…ec65backed No67c48,002$32,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,161.3430%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8910…ae6ebacked No8c42,223$3,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,382.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes22c38,750$8,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,304.154542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c91…9af7backed No77c34,000$26,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,195.711540%6 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe97c…2a99backed No64c31,429$20,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,267.151656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes33c30,000$9,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,244.727638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8258…f51ebacked No7c30,000$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013.281747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes26c28,499$7,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,091.554163.4%26 W · 15 L+7.8wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+57.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes44c24,472$10,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,769.883225%8 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes30c23,477$7,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,332.785240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes77c23,215$17,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,286.334427.3%12 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x384a…54e6backed No44c23,194$10,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,283.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No68c22,290$15,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,137.7669634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd68a…3311backed No50c21,825$10,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,839.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes44c21,815$9,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,316.86041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes22c21,200$4,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,601.963548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1028…6d9cbacked No0c21,027$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.74425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-65.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes65c20,504$13,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,075.723149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc62…978dbacked No37c20,327$7,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,477.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes57c19,849$11,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,600.0810127.7%28 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes31c19,600$6,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,535.919248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes43c19,343$8,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,067.088640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes50c17,314$8,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,612.238739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd189…06f4backed No0c16,780$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.781723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes33c16,227$5,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,901.4513525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbec7…6cfdbacked Yes50c15,689$7,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,800.551478.6%11 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.36per pick42cpaid+119.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes59c15,681$9,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,493.758750.6%44 W · 43 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes30c15,585$4,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,973.723652.8%19 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes57c14,986$8,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,445.2813540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc9d…4cc1backed No79c14,160$11,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,138.722065%13 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes59c14,030$8,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,763.868453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes52c13,887$7,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,724.625038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes63c13,388$8,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,887.762035%7 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-45.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xddcd…5581backed Yes30c12,486$3,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,717.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+142.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c3e…3d75backed No63c12,130$7,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,619.951250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x914e…9370backed Yes25c11,721$2,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,818.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+82.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes31c11,308$3,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,838.6321935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x410c…d091backed No0c11,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes55c10,791$5,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,809.3621634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed No43c10,741$4,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,652.879549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21fe…da90backed No2c10,200$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1582626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-57.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8b5…280cbacked Yes25c10,153$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,653.33944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed Yes35c10,000$3,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,477.23348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103315.2%5 W · 28 L-7.2wins-0.22per pick37cpaid-67.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xb843…1b3fbacked Yes74c10,000$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,600450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cfa…2653backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes55c9,979$5,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,466.6411538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked No63c9,610$6,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,076.044042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ff…238fbacked No64c9,303$5,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,930.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes33c9,222$3,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,206.7937844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes26c9,135$2,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,756.872751.9%14 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.18per pick34cpaid+43.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes47c8,827$4,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,671.398450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes40c8,517$3,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,073.453727%10 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad8e…709cbacked No54c8,374$4,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,561.553125.8%8 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-53.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd641…e37cbacked No33c8,080$2,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,658450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+47.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aff…c594backed Yes33c7,891$2,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,285.922100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+134.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5ec…7b2ebacked No78c7,689$6,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,029.081656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Yes21c7,654$1,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,055.545135.3%18 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+41.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66f3…3dadbacked No11c7,640$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.29742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c72…e677backed Yes59c7,561$4,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,088.84683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+36%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa147…3fccbacked Yes71c7,537$5,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,189.421353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef5…7e05backed Yes60c7,499$4,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No74c7,431$5,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,513.7617452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x066a…550dbacked No76c7,374$5,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,595.064339.5%17 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No27c7,220$1,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,915.956229%18 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ce…54a5backed No51c7,165$3,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,645.81838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-37.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4096…1740backed No38c7,163$2,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,710.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-32.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x239a…a0c6backed No5c7,140$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3361250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes33c7,042$2,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,736.0917633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes31c6,937$2,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,784.952245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes35c6,912$2,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,497.9837533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe352…f259backed Yes31c6,900$2,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,736.22227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ae2…8c70backed No0c6,675$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes46c6,632$3,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,586.036021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked Yes39c6,602$2,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,998.36833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1779…4822backed No79c6,584$5,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,206.66425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-40.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe341…273bbacked Yes35c6,438$2,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,205.461040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No78c6,380$4,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,986.1410056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x547b…014cbacked No75c6,326$4,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,731.271323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-62.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ea0…9928backed No40c6,174$2,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,482.852065%13 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes37c6,138$2,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,860.6610834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.