TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x66f3…3dad

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Weather, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 55 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT2272.7%16 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$398Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$139.94
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,455Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,455.25
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,920Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+94%+$1,805.12
Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on February 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$70
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on February 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST+33.3%+$12.5
Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on February 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST+38.2%+$31.8
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on February 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST+25%+$9
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST+86.8%+$85.95
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on February 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST+99.4%+$102.2
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on February 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST+61.3%+$7.6
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on February 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$20.51
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on February 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$81.5
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$431Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+30.8%+$132.97
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$495Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST+41.4%+$205
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST+25%+$11.4
Will the highest temperature in London be between 40-41°F on February 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$758Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2025, EST-100%-$757.81
Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on February 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2025, EST+57.1%+$10.9
Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on February 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST+25%+$14
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 47°F or higher on February 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$80.2
Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on February 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+42.2%+$57.04
Will the highest temperature in London be between 40-41°F on February 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+42.9%+$9
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST+72.4%+$8.4
All 22 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+99%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Space — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 10-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.6%+$38.4
Will 7-9 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$57.35
Will 4-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+1,150%+$312.8
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy booster?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,791Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT+26.4%+$472.86
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+43.5%+$23.81
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,117Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT+36.5%+$772.03
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$214.95
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$503Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$503.34
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST-100%-$419.78
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,248Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+102.2%+$1,275.37
All 10 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Will PVV be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$37.84
Will the Progressive Reform Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suriname election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$466Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$466.09
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$426Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+39.6%+$168.7
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+35.6%+$52.6
Will Donald Trump say Beautiful 5+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST-100%-$14.8
Will Donald Trump say Ukraine 10+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST-100%-$13.74
Will Noboa win outright in 1st round of Ecuador Election? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+31.4%+$47.86
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$10.44
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+29%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$3,289Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,288.71
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$719Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+283.4%+$2,036.21
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+88.4%+$112.6
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$513Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+87.2%+$447.57
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$691Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+26%+$179.87
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+47.1%+$97.13
Will iPhone 17 cost $1,000 or more? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.24
All 8 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,944Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+28.5%+$838.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+26.6%+$31.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump announce TikTok deal by Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$210.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.