Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x381e611e08e47c28d3febfdcfa3e86ffd542768964d6341ea52c6b19008165d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $227,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $229,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeaf6…a3eabacked Yes | 27c | 102,116$27,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,544.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7a…bf1fbacked No | 73c | 102,116$74,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74,544.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…645ebacked No | 0c | 12,970$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 41c | 591$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.06 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 6c | 401.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…d4d2backed Yes | 78c | 375.72$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.06 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…fcdfbacked Yes | 28c | 299.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.99 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +14.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 57c | 235.48$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.88 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…58debacked Yes | 66c | 227.45$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.47 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a83…9b47backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x809e…0a9fbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 199.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.95 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…3eb3backed No | 72c | 156$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 35c | 145$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 27c | 114.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.47 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 113.06$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 34c | 100.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d19…0121backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc870…4902backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…f84fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…edc5backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 58c | 91.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 33c | 90.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 20c | 76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2d…27e6backed Yes | 69c | 64.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…bffebacked Yes | 54c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 61c | 59.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec84…cb9ebacked No | 70c | 57.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…7afdbacked Yes | 28c | 55.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 27c | 53.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed No | 70c | 51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…66e2backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x12e9…b2c3backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1995…6f3fbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ee…3fbebacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked Yes | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda0…63a5backed Yes | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 31c | 40.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…e563backed Yes | 75c | 38.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 39c | 36.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…f6fcbacked No | 70c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…5389backed No | 70c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 56c | 20.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b66…1b4ebacked Yes | 76c | 19.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…ad26backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 33°F or below on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or higher on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.