Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55f1d363c09a7243f7b95e9235796ecbe2df71b02fbb0333119355374881bba0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $253,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $253,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $253,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c9f…35ccbacked No | 61c | 116,852$71,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,572.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa083…0795backed Yes | 39c | 116,852$45,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,572.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…58debacked Yes | 45c | 1,413$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.83 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,283$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 61c | 856.02$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.63 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…7e8abacked Yes | 28c | 741.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 55c | 733.84$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.56 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 29c | 690.91$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.05 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 40c | 633.96$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.1 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes | 30c | 499.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 29c | 493$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 20c | 489.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 472.96$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 56c | 357.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 62cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 335$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…fcdfbacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +14.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 299.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 60c | 269.22$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.46 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 36c | 258$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 44c | 226.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f8…0529backed Yes | 39c | 208.73$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 45c | 208.09$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 24c | 207.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked No | 54c | 185$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.95 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 49c | 184.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.73 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…e563backed Yes | 14c | 168.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 60c | 167.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 65c | 161.51$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 43c | 161.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 39c | 159.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…320fbacked Yes | 48c | 142.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006b…4142backed No | 55c | 142.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7c…6949backed No | 62c | 131.95$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6abb…7f93backed No | 55c | 120.11$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 75c | 111.04$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fb…1ec7backed Yes | 42c | 107.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…15a3backed No | 63c | 103.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 40c | 100.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…e3febacked Yes | 46c | 100.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…6406backed No | 63c | 100.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40d8…0740backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c18…839dbacked No | 54c | 96.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6612…d786backed Yes | 48c | 89.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 54c | 85.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8be4…7c06backed No | 55c | 85.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b7…b92abacked Yes | 46c | 83.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 52c | 72.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4b…2998backed No | 56c | 68.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…9222backed Yes | 44c | 67.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…51d7backed Yes | 48c | 67.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5657…4deabacked No | 56c | 64.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…5401backed Yes | 47c | 62.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 40c | 62.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 52c | 62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…957bbacked No | 60c | 60.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes | 39c | 59.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae1…e19dbacked No | 59c | 58.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147b…479dbacked No | 54c | 56.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 50c | 54.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked No | 60c | 54.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +244.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…188dbacked No | 58c | 49.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 48.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2d…27e6backed Yes | 24c | 41.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 53c | 41.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x925a…3e7fbacked No | 52c | 41.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef5…0810backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…c8ebbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 56c | 39.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21c3…3d54backed No | 57c | 39.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf053…5ab5backed Yes | 44c | 37.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0836…5782backed Yes | 44c | 37.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 46c | 36.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec2e…6da5backed No | 54c | 35.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9918…1e3cbacked Yes | 48c | 35.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc59c…7df8backed Yes | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 54c | 33.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…98cbbacked Yes | 51c | 32.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…0d82backed No | 57c | 32.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bd19backed Yes | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2d…343bbacked Yes | 48c | 31.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8b…2cb4backed Yes | 33c | 30.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb498…5fbdbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb707…156abacked Yes | 46c | 29.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…d7efbacked No | 57c | 26.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…74d7backed Yes | 44c | 25.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c4…d9acbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…d68ebacked No | 58c | 24.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7af5…e661backed No | 59c | 23.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…c203backed No | 57c | 22.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd548…c126backed No | 54c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bb…3750backed No | 56c | 19.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ce…b4b5backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 33°F or below on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or higher on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on February 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.