TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$253,372
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$253,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $253,372 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c9f…35ccbacked No61c116,852$71,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,572.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa083…0795backed Yes39c116,852$45,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,572.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x433b…58debacked Yes45c1,413$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.831915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes5c1,283$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.292506%15 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-67%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No61c856.02$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.6360235.7%215 W · 387 L+41.3wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ad1…7e8abacked Yes28c741.99$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.991833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No55c733.84$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.5611359.3%67 W · 46 L+7.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked No29c690.91$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.0511254.5%61 W · 51 L+20.1wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+75.9%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes40c633.96$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.11315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-53.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes30c499.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010833.3%36 W · 72 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+79.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes29c493$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd75d…00c8backed Yes20c489.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.130144.9%135 W · 166 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No54c472.96$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.229,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1734…ddd4backed Yes56c357.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.26per pick62cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes46c335$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a7e…fcdfbacked Yes12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610255.9%57 W · 45 L+14.3wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+51.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes39c299.98$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No60c269.22$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.463971.8%28 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes36c258$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.06616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-66.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes44c226.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004334.9%15 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f8…0529backed Yes39c208.73$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Yes45c208.09$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943435.3%12 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-24.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes24c207.54$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8481234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x66f3…3dadbacked No54c185$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.952272.7%16 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48af…15e2backed Yes49c184.46$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.733938.5%15 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe781…e563backed Yes14c168.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked Yes60c167.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009647.9%46 W · 50 L-14.8wins-0.15per pick63cpaid-21.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No65c161.51$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.531,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes43c161.38$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9949338.9%192 W · 301 L+49.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+51.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa291…d88dbacked Yes39c159.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.119126.2%50 W · 141 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e1f…320fbacked Yes48c142.62$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x006b…4142backed No55c142.05$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a7c…6949backed No62c131.95$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6abb…7f93backed No55c120.11$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No75c111.04$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7684930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1fb…1ec7backed Yes42c107.56$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa95e…15a3backed No63c103.49$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8196…0954backed Yes40c100.82$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5811126.1%29 W · 82 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xddcf…e3febacked Yes46c100.74$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99a1…6406backed No63c100.43$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3596620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x40d8…0740backed Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+35.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c18…839dbacked No54c96.35$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6612…d786backed Yes48c89.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked No54c85.59$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.83053.3%16 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8be4…7c06backed No55c85.44$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b7…b92abacked Yes46c83.7$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes22c75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.598738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0054…7f85backed No52c72.06$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.675162.7%32 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4b…2998backed No56c68.36$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.08875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0448…9222backed Yes44c67.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b8d…51d7backed Yes48c67.08$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5657…4deabacked No56c64.23$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffca…5401backed Yes47c62.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes40c62.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7140162.6%251 W · 150 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e6…2cc5backed No52c62$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0620556.1%115 W · 90 L+25.5wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+40.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0ac5…957bbacked No60c60.53$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes39c59.26$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.116435.9%23 W · 41 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfae1…e19dbacked No59c58.97$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x147b…479dbacked No54c56.24$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c53…44f2backed Yes50c54.85$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.282133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fff…c9dabacked No60c54.72$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.893100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+244.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcee6…188dbacked No58c49.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes30c48.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.472,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2d…27e6backed Yes24c41.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-60.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No53c41.87$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7838243.2%165 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x925a…3e7fbacked No52c41.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ef5…0810backed Yes48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-56.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86e5…c8ebbacked Yes48c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1950%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked No56c39.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.744413.6%6 W · 38 L-6.0wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-64.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x21c3…3d54backed No57c39.04$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf053…5ab5backed Yes44c37.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0836…5782backed Yes44c37.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No46c36.53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.583636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec2e…6da5backed No54c35.81$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9918…1e3cbacked Yes48c35.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc59c…7df8backed Yes70c35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No54c33.62$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.365735.1%20 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd51d…98cbbacked Yes51c32.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ab…0d82backed No57c32.09$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c54…bd19backed Yes43c32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b2d…343bbacked Yes48c31.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae8b…2cb4backed Yes33c30.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb498…5fbdbacked Yes70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb707…156abacked Yes46c29.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63ed…d7efbacked No57c26.51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+98.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe235…74d7backed Yes44c25.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97c4…d9acbacked No51c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d88…d68ebacked No58c24.76$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7af5…e661backed No59c23.71$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd8…c203backed No57c22.19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd548…c126backed No54c20.83$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.84938.8%19 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb0bb…3750backed No56c19.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ce…b4b5backed Yes69c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.