Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca376f54b01fbbb1199321291bddb5d5fadc0b7a055a4ea09ea90cb376a87685
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 7c | 1,288$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 39c | 1,179$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.13 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 400$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe921…f7e9backed Yes | 35c | 350$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 22c | 286.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 18c | 259.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x663f…10afbacked No | 65c | 190$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 29c | 180.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes | 20c | 180$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…3ff6backed No | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 25c | 148.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…8d6dbacked Yes | 10c | 135.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 76c | 133.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked No | 72c | 115$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 50c | 104.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d8…0740backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 48c | 86.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 30c | 79.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 75.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 70c | 66.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 20c | 60.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 57.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 41c | 53.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 24c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 32c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…f46bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…bffebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5f…f981backed Yes | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…ba14backed Yes | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 58°F or higher on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on February 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.