Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x923ee33535571178c9af823dbc919addb0a82f01f28aed58231a29862b9e63ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 61c | 3,714$2,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.16 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 10c | 3,325$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.07 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked No | 15c | 3,268$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.91 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,943$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,671.98 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 36c | 1,851$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.47 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebb7…efebbacked No | 51c | 1,205$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 47c | 1,038$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 16c | 849.7$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.85 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 14c | 768.9$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.76 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…8d6dbacked Yes | 7c | 693.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.23 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…dac7backed No | 79c | 598.29$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 44c | 587.65$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.98 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked Yes | 76c | 564.2$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.97 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Yes | 8c | 515.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.15 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…0fd9backed No | 26c | 497.96$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 49c | 410.69$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…e8b4backed Yes | 64c | 397.59$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 22c | 358.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.98 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 54c | 219.46$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.78 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 31c | 175.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 27c | 163.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.23 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed Yes | 65c | 163.29$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 20c | 145.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.42 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 145$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…2179backed Yes | 43c | 142.91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…dca1backed No | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -6.5wins | -0.43per pick | 50cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…b735backed No | 35c | 111.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…23dabacked No | 79c | 101.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 17c | 88.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f7…9c2fbacked Yes | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed Yes | 65c | 54.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 79c | 53.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 40c | 49.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 59c | 33.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 75c | 31.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…59fbbacked No | 69c | 28.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb3…c7dfbacked Yes | 41c | 27.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…f46bbacked No | 67c | 27.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…e563backed Yes | 43c | 25.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…6b49backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc354…de11backed No | 68c | 16.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.3wins | -0.54per pick | 71cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.