Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb409cc4007f412e1bf012dfcefee11faeaa1454b0f412f5f4eb08289caf6f83b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd25b…9f3dbacked No | 77c | 879.29$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked Yes | 11c | 866.52$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.97 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 24c | 826.2$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.86 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 813.66$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 13c | 740.4$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked No | 71c | 699.99$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 36c | 527.81$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.6 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 73c | 203.19$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.07 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 76c | 183.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 34c | 158$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 25c | 151.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes | 33c | 119.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 34c | 117.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 63c | 113.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.01 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceaa…bb9abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…2179backed Yes | 18c | 95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…64f1backed Yes | 60c | 83.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 36c | 80.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…f46bbacked Yes | 79c | 78.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 50c | 77.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes | 49c | 66.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 38c | 64.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc48…0a25backed Yes | 25c | 52.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 65c | 48.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x446c…c4dcbacked Yes | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bed…4a9abacked No | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6c…07b7backed No | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6369…ae2bbacked No | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3114…acd6backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e7…fdb6backed Yes | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f49…6f0cbacked Yes | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 76c | 21.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.