TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will the EU impose tariffs on the U.S. before May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$203,154
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$209,052

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,154 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x487c…7795backed No0c26,189$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.171127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5036…416bbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102035%7 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc33…d2f0backed No6c6,217$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed Yes47c6,085$2,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,232.023253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No10c5,001$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8241238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No26c4,551$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.8637533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes80c3,733$2,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.038450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No14c2,668$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.016838.2%26 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No75c2,439$1,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,825.910056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8866…dd1ebacked Yes63c2,425$1,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.552343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed No32c2,224$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.593053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad8e…709cbacked No60c2,168$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.283125.8%8 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-53.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb29…625bbacked No29c2,072$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.9790%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e4e…022cbacked Yes30c1,835$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.681050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+23.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No16c1,576$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.795735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes72c1,480$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.269634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes72c1,376$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.6110834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes75c1,354$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.772650%13 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed No19c1,347$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.66625.8%17 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No24c1,345$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.4218445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No19c1,301$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.235343.4%23 W · 30 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked No28c1,232$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.588640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes75c1,100$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.045743.9%25 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51cc…c6c9backed No2c1,095$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-45.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x505d…f8c4backed Yes79c1,090$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a4…4cc7backed Yes68c1,055$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.54666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+70.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No34c1,045$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.5717850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No27c936.43$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.199629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe085…5474backed No14c914.21$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.132850%14 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes24c913.28$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.2712630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No36c905.72$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.3737740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed Yes67c900$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2983737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe341…273bbacked No23c833.9$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.111040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes70c821.98$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.163732.4%12 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No6c730.36$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2814125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No21c712.03$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.0419435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes68c645.1$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.237844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes66c616.17$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.14045%18 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+67.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No34c615.12$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.4618746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x47df…2778backed No18c575.73$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71d3…0552backed Yes70c550.73$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.25366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed No22c545.97$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.11933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd28d…1fb7backed Yes72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1058127.2%22 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes64c490.58$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.1611336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No18c478.21$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2596319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes15c434.36$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.9113525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No17c425.94$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7413818.1%25 W · 113 L-0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa844…a551backed No62c419.99$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2602147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd94…b271backed Yes65c401.61$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.612161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No27c400.66$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2756733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes63c400$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.6928320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66f3…3dadbacked No31c389.51$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e0c…25dfbacked No25c385.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.291450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c41…8d2fbacked No21c381.9$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9961…adcbbacked No31c374.67$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.471250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83d6…0489backed Yes72c370$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.72321.7%5 W · 18 L-4.8wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-57.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x580e…a1c4backed No24c367.85$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.811030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5cb…27b3backed No18c367.78$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-53.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No27c365.29$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4815238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf4ae…52edbacked Yes79c365$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-57.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No20c359.04$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.618737.9%33 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed No26c355.83$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.383432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes72c349.55$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.931,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc26…24d0backed No74c337.7$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked No28c336.4$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.191070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+104.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5088…8844backed No11c325.55$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402a…d1d1backed Yes64c312.3$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.31942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No19c300.16$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1511950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x843a…1aa4backed Yes28c300$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2173732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed No28c298.01$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.045742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f0…3213backed No34c297.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad8c…8cc3backed No70c287.45$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002025%5 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-56.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x546d…e5cfbacked Yes77c285.2$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.981464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9ad…79d0backed Yes67c274.92$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.723336.4%12 W · 21 L-6.0wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-43.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x304c…7a74backed No26c272.86$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+56.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x069f…b749backed No30c264.95$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.96540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No30c258.14$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4528636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1f8…d38dbacked No20c256.75$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb80d…b4a3backed Yes78c250$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e20…ef1abacked Yes72c242.97$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf454…7eccbacked No16c240$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.713644.4%16 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6df…baa2backed Yes30c225.05$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.543138.7%12 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa198…106abacked Yes52c223.39$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.61770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1dbf…ec66backed No18c220.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0533…cf1cbacked Yes72c220$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+56.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No28c217.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.465451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4815…a1afbacked No20c214.1$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x956f…e875backed Yes77c213.19$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.03728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick58cpaid-51.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x739a…096bbacked No17c209.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No22c209.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4911918.5%22 W · 97 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No24c201$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1432626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eaa…7d99backed No33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0982…92c6backed Yes59c193.85$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.991225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13ca…00b9backed No26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7737…e497backed Yes80c186$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.94240.5%17 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No29c185.94$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.566842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked No40c184.44$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.334637%17 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed No15c182.32$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4210630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc68…47bdbacked No70c176.85$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.761369.2%9 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.