World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51f7452fddea310ba15955cfa8fa21419335b16f8310074e43f48c4856d7e0b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,398,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,370,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,398,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 902 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 71c | 164,493$117,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,940.36 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…78ddbacked Yes | 36c | 85,000$30,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,449.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…864bbacked No | 74c | 81,331$60,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,804.03 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 68cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…8b28backed Yes | 33c | 76,436$25,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,018.72 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb610…4c6fbacked Yes | 23c | 76,000$17,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,477.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Yes | 25c | 70,378$17,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,679.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5356…ed53backed No | 60c | 69,469$41,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,787.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d9…9370backed Yes | 40c | 69,469$27,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,787.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d5…c479backed Yes | 21c | 65,098$13,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,623 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Yes | 14c | 57,335$8,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,212.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…de55backed No | 69c | 57,196$39,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,913.14 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed No | 76c | 52,017$39,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,420.28 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Yes | 29c | 51,594$15,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,063.52 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…caefbacked Yes | 20c | 50,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69aa…8847backed No | 77c | 48,618$37,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,182.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017d…963fbacked Yes | 6c | 47,589$2,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,743.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes | 30c | 46,176$14,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,077.38 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9a…1ef4backed Yes | 1c | 41,509$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 33c | 38,983$12,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,853.3 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…770abacked Yes | 24c | 38,473$9,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,343.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a86…b39ebacked Yes | 21c | 34,118$7,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,097.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 33,526$21,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,344.38 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 21c | 27,561$5,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,728.88 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 45c | 26,017$11,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,668.08 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 18c | 25,414$4,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,502.57 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 35c | 25,226$8,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,755.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…d832backed Yes | 21c | 23,796$4,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,998.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…35dcbacked Yes | 20c | 23,506$4,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,727.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 19c | 23,385$4,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,385.9 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…30f5backed Yes | 54c | 23,204$12,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,514.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked No | 78c | 22,698$17,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,993.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…1d0abacked Yes | 50c | 22,000$11,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,099.99 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -6.1wins | -0.47per pick | 54cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…2e7cbacked Yes | 21c | 21,980$4,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,561.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5e…7f28backed No | 75c | 21,602$16,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,400.41 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f4…dbfebacked Yes | 65c | 20,875$13,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,589.48 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…3470backed Yes | 30c | 20,526$6,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,155.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6091…972bbacked No | 78c | 20,200$15,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,387.35 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 27c | 20,072$5,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,363.9 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes | 20c | 18,707$3,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,821.2 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 18c | 18,471$3,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,324.78 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b5…ab9abacked Yes | 8c | 18,173$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…3584backed No | 58c | 16,649$9,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,992.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…c328backed Yes | 45c | 16,428$7,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,392.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…79eabacked Yes | 30c | 16,128$4,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,917.66 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 16,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…b0d0backed No | 55c | 15,435$8,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,945.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed No | 72c | 15,000$10,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,210 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 40c | 14,489$5,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,818.53 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96a…396abacked No | 75c | 14,261$10,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,532.43 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 28c | 13,730$3,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,844.4 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 68c | 13,663$9,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,372.15 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2f…8baebacked No | 77c | 13,140$10,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,022.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ba…9e00backed Yes | 67c | 12,913$8,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,636.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc95…aab8backed Yes | 22c | 12,800$2,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,844 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 68c | 12,603$8,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,508.43 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…77dfbacked Yes | 18c | 11,843$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,083 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224e…ffdabacked Yes | 45c | 11,209$5,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,085.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 18c | 11,141$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,987.87 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 73c | 10,854$7,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,982.06 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 30c | 10,728$3,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,261.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 18c | 10,500$1,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,915 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked No | 75c | 10,240$7,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,514.77 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…3d65backed Yes | 20c | 10,209$2,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,086.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…0837backed Yes | 21c | 10,120$2,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,161.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99f…3977backed Yes | 44c | 10,091$4,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,454.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf77…3ea1backed Yes | 22c | 9,935$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 24c | 9,860$2,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,325.74 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Yes | 28c | 9,821$2,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,730.69 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 22c | 9,781$2,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,126.01 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,710$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb05…358bbacked Yes | 29c | 9,653$2,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,769.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 30c | 9,537$2,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,883.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…cc80backed No | 59c | 9,315$5,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,863.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 55c | 9,153$5,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,042.18 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…7921backed No | 71c | 9,153$6,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,623.84 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Yes | 34c | 9,106$3,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,078.14 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 32c | 8,395$2,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,656.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed Yes | 34c | 8,382$2,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,872.91 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58dc…436cbacked Yes | 14c | 8,290$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…8642backed Yes | 77c | 8,229$6,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,340.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…9ce3backed Yes | 16c | 7,756$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ca…125bbacked Yes | 18c | 7,735$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a34…47e9backed Yes | 70c | 7,598$5,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,353.42 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 26c | 7,342$1,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,909.13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 14c | 7,203$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.83 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb636…32bbbacked Yes | 23c | 6,875$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Yes | 29c | 6,767$1,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb36…09f3backed Yes | 21c | 6,576$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1539…ff6cbacked Yes | 33c | 6,268$2,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,044.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…8bc2backed Yes | 64c | 6,148$3,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,935.06 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc05e…4398backed Yes | 2c | 6,115$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de4…1d9abacked Yes | 18c | 6,008$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…7a8bbacked No | 75c | 6,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 14c | 5,790$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.6 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 73c | 5,751$4,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.93 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb93…4da8backed Yes | 37c | 5,695$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa41d…c563backed Yes | 22c | 5,500$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.46 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked Yes | 62c | 5,411$3,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,355.91 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaec7…f646backed Yes | 48c | 5,240$2,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,493.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?this page
- Will Bloc Québécois party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?No won
- Will another party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?No won
- Will the Green Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?Yes won
- Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?No won
- Will the People's party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.