TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,398,501
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,370,608

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,398,501 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 902 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No71c164,493$117,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,940.365664.3%36 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b0e…78ddbacked Yes36c85,000$30,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,449.9830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfffa…864bbacked No74c81,331$60,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,804.031291.7%11 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick68cpaid+37.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcba5…8b28backed Yes33c76,436$25,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,018.72260%0 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb610…4c6fbacked Yes23c76,000$17,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,477.8840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Yes25c70,378$17,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,679.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5356…ed53backed No60c69,469$41,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,787.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9d9…9370backed Yes40c69,469$27,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,787.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86d5…c479backed Yes21c65,098$13,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,623250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Yes14c57,335$8,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,212.19616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-74.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d0…de55backed No69c57,196$39,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,913.141662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1fc…0ec1backed No76c52,017$39,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,420.281464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Yes29c51,594$15,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,063.522339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…caefbacked Yes20c50,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-67.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69aa…8847backed No77c48,618$37,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,182.08742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-40.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x017d…963fbacked Yes6c47,589$2,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,743.340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes30c46,176$14,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,077.381330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9a…1ef4backed Yes1c41,509$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.3250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes33c38,983$12,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,853.35536.4%20 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f3d…770abacked Yes24c38,473$9,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,343.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a86…b39ebacked Yes21c34,118$7,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,097.91425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-67.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No63c33,526$21,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,344.3857636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes21c27,561$5,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,728.886622.7%15 W · 51 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes45c26,017$11,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,668.088035%28 W · 52 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes18c25,414$4,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,502.5716535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Yes35c25,226$8,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,755.681233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ac3…d832backed Yes21c23,796$4,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,998.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…35dcbacked Yes20c23,506$4,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,727.53812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-71.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes19c23,385$4,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,385.94517.8%8 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-59.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b62…30f5backed Yes54c23,204$12,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,514.87425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-60.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0d9…e4eebacked No78c22,698$17,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,993.571346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fad…1d0abacked Yes50c22,000$11,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,099.99137.7%1 W · 12 L-6.1wins-0.47per pick54cpaid-89.9%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x4829…2e7cbacked Yes21c21,980$4,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,561.24520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-69.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a5e…7f28backed No75c21,602$16,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,400.412347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07f4…dbfebacked Yes65c20,875$13,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,589.481428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2c4…3470backed Yes30c20,526$6,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,155.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6091…972bbacked No78c20,200$15,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,387.351957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes27c20,072$5,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,363.95317%9 W · 44 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-71%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes20c18,707$3,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,821.21421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes18c18,471$3,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,324.782429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63b5…ab9abacked Yes8c18,173$1,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c71…3584backed No58c16,649$9,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,992.62862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4f9…c328backed Yes45c16,428$7,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,392.640%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b9d…79eabacked Yes30c16,128$4,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,917.66100%0 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c16,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73cb…b0d0backed No55c15,435$8,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,945.75955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick28cpaid+58.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed No72c15,000$10,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2102958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes40c14,489$5,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,818.539334.4%32 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc96a…396abacked No75c14,261$10,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,532.435100%5 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes28c13,730$3,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,844.43551.4%18 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked No68c13,663$9,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,372.156930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd2f…8baebacked No77c13,140$10,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,022.11771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ba…9e00backed Yes67c12,913$8,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,636.78771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc95…aab8backed Yes22c12,800$2,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,844911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes68c12,603$8,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,508.4348224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c4…77dfbacked Yes18c11,843$2,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08390%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224e…ffdabacked Yes45c11,209$5,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,085.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes18c11,141$1,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,987.8711850.8%60 W · 58 L+29.2wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+132.4%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No73c10,854$7,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,982.0617037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed Yes30c10,728$3,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,261.311330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed Yes18c10,500$1,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9152240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b5…205cbacked No75c10,240$7,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,514.773259.4%19 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc2f6…3d65backed Yes20c10,209$2,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,086.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a13…0837backed Yes21c10,120$2,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,161.9540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe99f…3977backed Yes44c10,091$4,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,454.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa581…45b2backed Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-47.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf77…3ea1backed Yes22c9,935$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes24c9,860$2,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,325.743614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Yes28c9,821$2,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,730.691838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes22c9,781$2,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,126.0113525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c9,710$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.744521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb05…358bbacked Yes29c9,653$2,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,769.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Yes30c9,537$2,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,883.841241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5d…cc80backed No59c9,315$5,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,863.43944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes55c9,153$5,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,042.1827828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a3…7921backed No71c9,153$6,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,623.841471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Yes34c9,106$3,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,078.142828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Yes32c8,395$2,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,656.13933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed Yes34c8,382$2,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,872.911833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58dc…436cbacked Yes14c8,290$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36cc…8642backed Yes77c8,229$6,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,340.2150%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x429a…9ce3backed Yes16c7,756$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ca…125bbacked Yes18c7,735$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376.8450%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a34…47e9backed Yes70c7,598$5,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,353.421931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes26c7,342$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,909.131060%6 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+66.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes14c7,203$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.835435.2%19 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb636…32bbbacked Yes23c6,875$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,596.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Yes29c6,767$1,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9301050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb36…09f3backed Yes21c6,576$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.07633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+180.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1539…ff6cbacked Yes33c6,268$2,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,044.2630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fd0…8bc2backed Yes64c6,148$3,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,935.062035%7 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc05e…4398backed Yes2c6,115$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2de4…1d9abacked Yes18c6,008$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffec…7a8bbacked No75c6,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5002441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x355f…0df8backed Yes14c5,790$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.62913.8%4 W · 25 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-8.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No73c5,751$4,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,528.934334.9%15 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb93…4da8backed Yes37c5,695$2,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,082.86728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa41d…c563backed Yes22c5,500$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.46128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-74.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe32e…890bbacked Yes62c5,411$3,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,355.911030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-28%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaec7…f646backed Yes48c5,240$2,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,493.32633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.