Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 47°F or higher on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa99383353ca2b6b09d3de432d384eb703b96c87b3c1ca81dfcfa1497e6d74268
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 50c | 1,892$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.69 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 59c | 903.05$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.07 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 45c | 500.16$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed No | 71c | 483$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.22 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -5.1wins | -0.46per pick | 64cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 57c | 303$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.84 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…fcdfbacked Yes | 36c | 301.33$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +14.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked No | 69c | 299.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 58c | 294.03$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.75 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 42c | 290.6$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.59 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 61c | 201$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdde6…5406backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…664bbacked Yes | 64c | 178.39$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked No | 67c | 168.38$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.11 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 144.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.03 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 27c | 141.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.46 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 36c | 141.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.69 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 45c | 134.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed No | 59c | 120$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked No | 67c | 120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…4e95backed Yes | 56c | 100.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c49…221abacked No | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…e2bcbacked Yes | 40c | 89.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5eb…5b90backed No | 60c | 78.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d37…48abbacked Yes | 28c | 70.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9361…f031backed Yes | 33c | 67.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…2016backed No | 62c | 64.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…8d6dbacked Yes | 40c | 63.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8434…6948backed No | 59c | 62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 71c | 61.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefb…4ef9backed Yes | 41c | 61.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…f751backed Yes | 40c | 57.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…ee63backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d8…0740backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…d9e0backed No | 64c | 48.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x621a…f715backed Yes | 38c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 37c | 44.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…fbb1backed No | 69c | 42.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…a4c0backed Yes | 37c | 41.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ff…0be7backed No | 61c | 39.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…43f4backed No | 62c | 39.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…21f2backed Yes | 37c | 38.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414d…f61abacked Yes | 40c | 37.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ad…10a1backed Yes | 39c | 32.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0200…3e4fbacked No | 63c | 32.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f06…13ccbacked Yes | 38c | 32.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5820…8477backed No | 59c | 32.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde83…1677backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f89fbacked No | 63c | 31.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7295…be3cbacked Yes | 41c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc0…2054backed No | 62c | 26.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…634cbacked No | 66c | 26.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe787…610dbacked No | 61c | 24.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…5e48backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…fe5fbacked No | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb33d…649bbacked No | 62c | 21.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 63c | 17.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 47°F or higher on February 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 37-38°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 41-42°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on February 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.