Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd90dc4ba128dcd7dea48556b3ba692b0aa8795d503cce3b17ad051d24ab692b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 1c | 5,606$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 2c | 2,517$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 17c | 1,423$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.98 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d8…0740backed Yes | 2c | 1,190$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 234.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 65c | 191.65$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Yes | 54c | 170.27$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.57 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…cbc2backed Yes | 41c | 164.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7295…be3cbacked Yes | 35c | 160.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 35c | 135$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 45c | 135$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b3…681abacked No | 65c | 114.75$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 34c | 105.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09ba…8581backed Yes | 25c | 105$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…cd68backed No | 65c | 97.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…21f2backed Yes | 35c | 96.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ad…10a1backed Yes | 35c | 91.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…ee63backed Yes | 61c | 90$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93aa…60cebacked Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe787…610dbacked Yes | 35c | 85.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x345e…7b41backed No | 76c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…c0c6backed Yes | 24c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e7…8592backed No | 48c | 77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b3…f99cbacked Yes | 52c | 77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ff…0be7backed Yes | 35c | 74.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…8d6dbacked No | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…4a3ebacked Yes | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f89fbacked No | 65c | 64.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x959a…e797backed Yes | 35c | 61.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…5bfabacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…9189backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c3…69b0backed Yes | 35c | 59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb33d…649bbacked No | 65c | 58.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…cd9fbacked No | 65c | 57.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…1391backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5820…8477backed Yes | 35c | 53.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcaa…3b9abacked Yes | 35c | 50.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…c1febacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…9dafbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc929…bbc8backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c49…221abacked Yes | 39c | 47.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x679f…3264backed No | 52c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8434…6948backed Yes | 35c | 45.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1eb…933cbacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b4…2d4cbacked No | 65c | 43.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x414d…f61abacked No | 65c | 42.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…43f4backed No | 65c | 41.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d54…ca03backed No | 65c | 41.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25fd…a641backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee30…27dcbacked No | 65c | 38.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed No | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c59…4a5bbacked No | 65c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5714…3fbcbacked No | 64c | 36.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…634cbacked No | 65c | 36.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65fd…43c1backed No | 65c | 35.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…b5c2backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd225…c3d4backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5eb…5b90backed No | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec84…cb9ebacked No | 60c | 33.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…e9a7backed Yes | 35c | 30.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa865…a2c3backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…f075backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3b…9d46backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefb…4ef9backed No | 65c | 29.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba14…f1ddbacked Yes | 35c | 29.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…e2bcbacked Yes | 35c | 29.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…0bd4backed Yes | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…a4c0backed No | 64c | 26.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…2a8dbacked No | 65c | 26.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3915…41bfbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ca…8617backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…c540backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…53c8backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783d…362bbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…2016backed No | 64c | 23.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb49…861abacked No | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…fe1fbacked Yes | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d96…5203backed Yes | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7467…a98ebacked No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…d9e0backed No | 65c | 20.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d3…2d11backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598d…3244backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…262bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…208ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf304…40fabacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…fe3dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 67c | 17.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5c…8334backed No | 64c | 17.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc3…de78backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…0eb3backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd530…9a0cbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…f02dbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3084…2638backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +235.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd125…029dbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…785dbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb687…26a4backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on February 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 47°F or higher on February 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 37-38°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 41-42°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.