Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bd4ba86688552cacd878b8032d7a47b0debe3962d0d962da2999ae2538b1a4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 0c | 39,712$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…4d87backed Yes | 1c | 3,108$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab53…3f7bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked No | 74c | 538.23$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.94 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 79c | 504.73$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.89 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 20c | 427.76$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 64c | 416.95$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.38 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 80c | 363.44$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.08 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 15c | 333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 308.61$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 22c | 299.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 78c | 255.13$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 48c | 252.92$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.01 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed No | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 243.03$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 52c | 221.26$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.49 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 74c | 210.21$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.36 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 199.62$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.93 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 198.18$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 184.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 77c | 175.94$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.8 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 24c | 163.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…0ce8backed Yes | 29c | 153.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 150.59$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 15c | 147.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 146.83$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 21c | 143.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5812…8c24backed Yes | 76c | 141.37$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f68…c408backed Yes | 10c | 138.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 135.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…8e5cbacked No | 52c | 133.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 126.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…bb58backed Yes | 28c | 105.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 105.19$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 103.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 15c | 103.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 23c | 101.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b1…610abacked Yes | 27c | 98.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 17c | 88.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 70c | 88.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 85.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…994abacked Yes | 22c | 84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…808ebacked No | 71c | 82.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 38c | 82.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 75c | 78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 75.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 26c | 71.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1211…b173backed Yes | 22c | 70.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 25c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…0ab4backed Yes | 71c | 68.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 59c | 64.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 75c | 64.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf78…c915backed Yes | 69c | 55.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 23c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 25c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 48c | 51.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…2ba8backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…7be2backed Yes | 23c | 47.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 25c | 47.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 29c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 47c | 46.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 43.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 42c | 41.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…e145backed No | 77c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 33c | 36.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 77c | 31.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 31.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 67c | 27.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 74c | 27.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 71c | 25.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 43c | 24.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 53c | 24.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 23.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…4dd0backed No | 75c | 17.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…74a3backed Yes | 79c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 73c | 14.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 76c | 13.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.