TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,414
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,261

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,414 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x592e…2030backed Yes0c39,712$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865560%33 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaea3…4d87backed Yes1c3,108$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.781631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-51.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xab53…3f7bbacked Yes0c3,047$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66f3…3dadbacked No74c538.23$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.942272.7%16 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f1c…55e4backed No79c504.73$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.894887.5%42 W · 6 L+12.0wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+49%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes20c427.76$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1344757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No64c416.95$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.3872222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No80c363.44$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.083,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes15c333$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.34143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c308.61$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x420d…544abacked Yes22c299.59$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.785940.7%24 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed Yes78c255.13$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004257.1%24 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No48c252.92$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.0142130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x953f…7518backed No75c250$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.53745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c243.03$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.554,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d21…b569backed No52c221.26$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4914158.2%82 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes74c210.21$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.3633058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No67c199.62$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.932,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No70c198.18$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.558,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes31c184.52$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.495,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes77c175.94$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.827648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes24c163.8$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.974338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd98d…0ce8backed Yes29c153.79$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No79c150.59$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.322,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes15c147.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4770133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No72c146.83$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.612,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes21c143.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3053437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5812…8c24backed Yes76c141.37$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.79450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f68…c408backed Yes10c138.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.362548%12 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes25c135.08$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.081,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17d6…8e5cbacked No52c133.24$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.541866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes16c126.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4169…bb58backed Yes28c105.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No54c105.19$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.552,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes27c103.79$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.243,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes15c103.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1527421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes23c101.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.554143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.511,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb4b1…610abacked Yes27c98.32$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.07616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-32.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb740…eabbbacked Yes17c88.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6823923.4%56 W · 183 L-17.1wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No70c88.15$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2395852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No72c85.25$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.971,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba05…994abacked Yes22c84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6650%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a8b…808ebacked No71c82.63$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.715125.5%13 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes38c82.47$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No75c78$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.54,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No57c75.09$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.023,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes30c75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.594919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No26c71.04$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.851,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1211…b173backed Yes22c70.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.56219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-70.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes25c69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2510736.4%39 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b64…0ab4backed Yes71c68.19$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.412744.4%12 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-26.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No75c66.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6642976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed No59c64.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1323941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed Yes75c64.24$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1823673.3%173 W · 63 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes26c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.640935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No78c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.21,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf78…c915backed Yes69c55.86$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.732218.2%4 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-25.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No23c55$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.652155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes25c54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.525935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No75c54$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.59,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No48c51.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.341,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x615b…2ba8backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123467.6%23 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes21c48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0811146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes23c48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8486226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x561a…7be2backed Yes23c47.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.967715.6%12 W · 65 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes25c47.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7845127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes29c47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.735233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc55…838fbacked Yes47c46.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4211753%62 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes28c43.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1319734%67 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No42c41.78$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.381,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb581…e145backed No77c41$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.43650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes33c36.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.355538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes77c31.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.77356.2%41 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No78c31.85$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0186173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No69c28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.684,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes67c27.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3418038.9%70 W · 110 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes74c27.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes71c25.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.551,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed Yes43c24.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5821052.4%110 W · 100 L+14.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes53c24.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134961.2%30 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No72c23.91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6399963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…ba60backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.97777.9%60 W · 17 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+12.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No77c18.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.263,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b0e…4dd0backed No75c17.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b34…74a3backed Yes79c16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.642615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick21cpaid+50.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe61…e9c2backed No73c14.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.897384.9%62 W · 11 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick77cpaid+11.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x548a…e37abacked No76c13.31$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.196845.6%31 W · 37 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-21.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1907…ac1abacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.53560%21 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.