Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabf70ccb9225787ca1858ca38a2e7ed23105437887cfd7f037bec67c15f44212
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 9c | 1,082$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 628.23$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 63c | 600.12$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.66 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed No | 64c | 464.38$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.43 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 34c | 447.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.67 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 25c | 384.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.68 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 350.02$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 41c | 254.74$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.61 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 20c | 251.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 243.33$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.1 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 37c | 225.16$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 59c | 223.18$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.77 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 39c | 206.61$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.19 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 63c | 205.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.42 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…da13backed No | 50c | 200.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…acd2backed Yes | 67c | 198$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 29c | 184.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 169.72$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 53c | 162.54$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 43c | 157.29$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 59c | 150.05$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 147.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 140.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…0ab4backed No | 67c | 137.97$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 22c | 136.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.67 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 43c | 125$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…4b19backed Yes | 56c | 124.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 11c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 72c | 120$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.81 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 9c | 117.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b1…610abacked Yes | 25c | 115.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…808ebacked Yes | 15c | 112.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.5 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 110.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 46c | 108.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 49c | 100.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 99.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 54c | 91.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 86.43$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 37c | 82.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 39c | 79.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 47c | 70.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 65.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 74c | 65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 64.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 46c | 64.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 43c | 64.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 22c | 63.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 63c | 63.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 32c | 54.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 54c | 54.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 49c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 38c | 51.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…4d87backed Yes | 74c | 50.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…e309backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 45c | 49.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 37c | 48.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 45c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 46.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 36c | 43.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…0ce8backed Yes | 35c | 42.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe16…d380backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 63c | 39.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…85ccbacked No | 36c | 38.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 49c | 38.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 59c | 38.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 73c | 37.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 45c | 34.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 33.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…a8f6backed Yes | 56c | 30.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…6c2abacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d7…a7fdbacked Yes | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 77c | 28.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3274…4493backed Yes | 46c | 27.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…7421backed No | 59c | 26.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 42c | 26.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…7be2backed Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…5f37backed Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c28…1041backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…d40fbacked Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb05f…1831backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 62c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.