TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xeb7f…0abb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
385
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: South American Leagues, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category South American Leagues at 60 out of 100; worst Australian A League at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT18948.1%91 W · 98 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 189 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+27.5%+$13.28
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+26%+$7.07
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on May 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+44.4%+$7.99
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+139%+$17.74
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.12
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$5.5
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+141.4%+$44.75
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+118.8%+$19.12
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+117.7%+$15.1
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+169.7%+$19
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+109.5%+$12.82
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.6
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+55.2%+$17.39
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.84
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.91
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.79
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.99
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$9.3
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$18.6
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.42
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.95
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+42.4%+$5.8
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+47.8%+$8.52
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+140.4%+$14.6
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+58%+$11.01
Showing 25 of 189 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT4665.2%30 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
La Liga — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$8.66
CD Leganés vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+55.3%+$14.25
Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
FC Andorra vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+55.1%+$24.16
FC Andorra vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$16
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$23.4
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Málaga CF vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+102.3%+$13.86
Real Valladolid CF vs. Real Zaragoza: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$10.52
Elche CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.53
Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.31
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+56.1%+$23.25
CD Castellón vs. Córdoba CF: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$29.19
Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$18
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. CD Leganés: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+48.4%+$18.87
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. CD Leganés: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$14.68
Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.21
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. Córdoba CF: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
CD Mirandés vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+37%+$85.63
CD Mirandés vs. Albacete Balompié: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
UD Almería vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$319Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+49.9%+$159.17
Real Zaragoza vs. Real Racing Club: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Real Zaragoza vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Real Zaragoza vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$58.33
Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa vs. FC Andorra: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.26
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT3066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Czechia vs. Denmark: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$361Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$360.85
San Marino vs. Andorra: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.55
Will Norway win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Norway vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Montenegro vs. Slovenia: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$79.69
Montenegro vs. Slovenia: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$39.63
Montenegro vs. Slovenia: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$48.04
Will Andorra win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Saudi Arabia vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$257Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$76.71
Luxembourg vs. Malta: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$193.91
Will Germany win on 2026-03-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+84.2%+$16.84
Germany vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+68.6%+$82.31
Spread: Germany (-1.5)backed Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Germany vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$29.87
Cyprus vs. Moldova: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+42.2%+$63.31
Cyprus vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+105.9%+$42.35
Cyprus vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$51.52
Armenia vs. Belarus: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$23.48
Armenia vs. Belarus: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+60.8%+$51.07
Will Georgia win on 2026-03-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+70.2%+$73.75
Spread: Georgia (-1.5)backed Georgia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$42.49
Lithuania vs. Georgia: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+90.7%+$66.93
Armenia vs. Belarus: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$29.87
Burkina Faso vs. Guinea-Bissau: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+64%+$81.14
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT2050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. Viking FK: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.1
Rosenborg BK vs. Lillestrøm SK: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Galatasaray SK vs. Antalyaspor: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+31.8%+$8.88
Sparta Rotterdam vs. Go Ahead Eagles: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
AFC Ajax vs. PSV: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$13.33
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+91.7%+$41.27
FC Arouca vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+138.6%+$26.33
Gaziantep FK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Viking FK vs. Rosenborg BK: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Spread: Viking FK (-2.5)backed Rosenborg BK · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
CD Tondela vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+76.5%+$29.51
Eyüpspor vs. Samsunspor: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$17.23
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$14.52
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.39
SC Braga vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$48.04
Kayserispor vs. Fatih Karagümrük SK: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.44
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5)backed Fenerbahçe SK · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+100%+$20
Rio Ave FC vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
CD Nacional vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
CD Nacional vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 20 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT1573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+56.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CA Rosario Central vs. CA Independiente: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+150.8%+$24.12
CA Talleres vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.6
CA Huracán vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$43.21
Botafogo FR vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$37.87
Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Unión: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$38.28
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$49.22
CA Talleres vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.63
Santos FC vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$37.3
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+52.3%+$35.26
CA Tigre vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+45.5%+$21.56
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$57.93
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$138
Will CA Unión vs. CA Boca Juniors end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+300%+$54
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Cruzeiro EC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+122.7%+$63.81
All 15 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.55
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+56.1%+$15.45
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.7
Pisa SC vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+60.6%+$38.76
Udinese Calcio vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.87
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+58.2%+$14.56
ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.49
ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.46
Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)backed US Cremonese · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.87
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19.05
Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5)backed US Cremonese · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.9
US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$18.3
US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$35.7
Como 1907 vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$59.06
All 14 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Asian League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$7.2
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.75
Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+55%+$12.09
Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+77.2%+$35.22
JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
FC Anyang vs. Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+79.7%+$27.94
Vissel Kōbe vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+38.5%+$10.81
Vissel Kōbe vs. Fagiano Okayama: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.29
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$13.63
Jeju SK FC vs. Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Jeju SK FC vs. Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
All 13 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+53.3%+$15.65
Hull City AFC vs. Norwich City FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Wrexham AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.12
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.64
Crystal Palace FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)backed Manchester United FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+199.3%+$39.86
Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+79%+$67.92
Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$43.08
Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+25%+$16.25
All 12 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$20.4
SC Preußen Münster vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.75
1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.12
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+57.7%+$30.92
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$14.1
Hannover 96 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$15.71
VfB Stuttgart vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.68
SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 10 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Australian A League Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick64cpaid-73.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Mls Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Mls — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Kings (-2.5)backed Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Jazz vs. Kings: O/U 230.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Trail Blazers vs. 76ers: O/U 221.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
All 3 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+26.5%+$6.17
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$6.94
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Split: Mili Poljicak vs Tom Gentzschbacked Tom Gentzsch · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Grand Prix Hassan II, Qualification: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Lloyd Harrisbacked Lloyd Harris · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+37%+$54.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.36
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.