Other European Leagues · resolved market
CD Nacional vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf530998be3b0bf9586e6d8457b5cf7d4ab9223b464fe1f778049141a10252769
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,561 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 2,241$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,471.96 | 7,966 | 45.3%3,608 W · 4,358 L | +9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 60c | 1,700$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 77c | 973.29$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.65 | 5,677 | 42%2,382 W · 3,295 L | +74.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bc…03efbacked Over | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 11c | 493.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.84 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44dd…34f9backed Over | 76c | 296.05$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4b…3490backed Under | 24c | 296.05$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…edf2backed Over | 76c | 296$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…82dcbacked Under | 24c | 296$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 35c | 255.85$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 56c | 183.11$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.54 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 42c | 180.87$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.1 | 2,316 | 42.8%991 W · 1,325 L | -41.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 40c | 153.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 72c | 139.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 503 | 46.3%233 W · 270 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Over | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Under | 71c | 100.88$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…99febacked Over | 56c | 89.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 19c | 74.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 1,111 | 47.9%532 W · 579 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34e…9d58backed Under | 20c | 73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb20…16a1backed Over | 48c | 41.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Over | 44c | 35.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…d938backed Over | 47c | 27.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 38c | 26.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 341 | 58.9%201 W · 140 L | +25.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…5b2ebacked Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Nacional vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 1.5this page
- CD Nacional vs. Estoril Praia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Nacional vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 2.5Under won
- CD Nacional vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Nacional vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.