Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f1ebb7d6301b0b950515b6120858e8488666767b064762996cf1af35fdc84c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 43c | 317.96$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.04 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 254.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.11 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 35c | 175.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.32 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 41c | 157.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 10c | 144.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 126.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 122.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 48c | 91.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 48c | 85.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 20c | 83.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 58c | 74.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 73.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d60…2e47backed Yes | 67c | 71.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 65.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 69c | 63.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 57c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 39c | 51.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 52c | 51.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 66c | 47.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ee…f8bdbacked No | 53c | 40.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 58c | 39.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 67c | 36.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 34.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 56c | 32.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 28.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 43c | 26.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 76c | 25.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…6e05backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 42c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 64c | 18.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 57c | 18.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 17.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 63c | 16.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.