TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,937

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,937 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Under44c11,719$5,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,562.466465.6%42 W · 22 L+8.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Over56c8,929$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under50c4,029$2,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.093,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over56c2,485$1,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,391.553645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa853…0acebacked Over56c1,807$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd39…234fbacked Under44c1,800$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0082100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over30c1,610$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.942,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under56c1,574$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.461,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Under79c1,416$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.583268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Over57c1,377$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.7124132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over56c1,233$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.2510040%40 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under48c1,141$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.027967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c80…93b5backed Over49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005538.2%21 W · 34 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Over56c899.99$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5042142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Under47c890.85$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.152334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over59c822.51$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.9814260.6%86 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df9…e49ebacked Under61c761$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.69650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over53c749.09$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.0234144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56ff…81a0backed Over58c685.34$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.923966.7%26 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under44c682$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.925145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Under42c613.1$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.7514734.7%51 W · 96 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x883c…474dbacked Over64c468.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc22…b4e7backed Over43c465.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over54c462.94$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.995024%12 W · 38 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Under44c459.82$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.933215.6%5 W · 27 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-52.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under50c452.67$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.821,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over59c438.46$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.1616464%105 W · 59 L+28.5wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+49.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under32c428$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.4749143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa313…1f26backed Over29c427.79$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.731926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b09…2c43backed Over30c413.6$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.211136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7418…251fbacked Over37c404.13$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506761.2%41 W · 26 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bae…e6c5backed Over53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Over54c370$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Under49c367.35$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.356245.2%28 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9a7f…5dcebacked Under66c357.99$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.41450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over73c340.58$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010863%68 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under45c299.98$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.9910855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e52…00f5backed Over69c288.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006844.1%30 W · 38 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+46%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d16…4e1fbacked Under78c285.94$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.911346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick67cpaid-34.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Over53c284$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.5211540.9%47 W · 68 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under44c254.86$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.7135856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under73c230.53$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4338151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b0…f879backed Under44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.27450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc333…05a5backed Over68c220$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Over54c218.33$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.085151%26 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under37c215.73$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.181,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e72…54f0backed Under48c208.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.74551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe761…8a64backed Under44c204.36$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.44955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6af…b5efbacked Over55c200.67$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1106147.5%29 W · 32 L-8.5wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-28.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x724c…1521backed Under52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.311668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over54c192.02$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.41,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f6…4288backed Over54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b54…db07backed Over54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25f6…fcd2backed Over54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8942…1e76backed Over56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd179…361ebacked Over29c172.93$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over56c170.16$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2912460.5%75 W · 49 L+19.9wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+46.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0644…c7b4backed Over43c162.79$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa396…0019backed Over25c159.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401625%4 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over63c159.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0425352.2%132 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over55c147.27$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8118958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over62c138.35$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7811065.5%72 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff2a…3319backed Over54c138$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5240%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over52c134.62$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709548.4%46 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a94…769cbacked Over52c134.62$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over51c123.5$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5833938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under45c116.64$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1549647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8882…c67dbacked Under48c114.63$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.14862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under46c108.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6937344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb550…8f5dbacked Under73c107.11$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Under53c103.77$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.775354.7%29 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over49c100.12$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.066134.4%21 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a2b…d4e9backed Under74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261560%9 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a54…4e11backed Over52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe704…7558backed Over54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017855.6%99 W · 79 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa380…55e3backed Over55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502548%12 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb7f…0abbbacked Over58c86.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over48c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.434655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7d…d1c9backed Over71c77$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under46c70.22$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9263645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97b2…1c44backed Over59c70$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.955655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Over56c69.64$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395939%23 W · 36 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Under45c68$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.41258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…860fbacked Over56c62.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x798e…4df3backed Over59c62.06$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.471936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over35c57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.955536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Over53c56.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.078252.4%43 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Over37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206546.2%30 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45c1…4364backed Under77c53.34$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.272343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over65c50.77$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3311744.4%52 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d9f…77aebacked Over60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+37.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over56c49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.447345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf438…de5dbacked Over23c47.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111942.1%8 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+126.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf788…6f86backed Over64c45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.89068.9%62 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick69cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019055.3%105 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56a7…9f37backed Under45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.441478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.27per pick51cpaid+49.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x111c…40a3backed Under47c42.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.78742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over51c42.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6348146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb85e…e18dbacked Over50c42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213250%16 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+27.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.