Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x331ff12d006e2355ea4a9ab050f00a479069b2c324ea83ee60eff2d4f2088705
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1. FSV Mainz 05of SV Werder Bremen, 1. FSV Mainz 05
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,058 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa10e…4ea1backed SV Werder Bremen | 25c | 4,118$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 75c | 1,771$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.22 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed SV Werder Bremen | 10c | 1,110$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.85 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 76c | 941.9$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.06 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 76c | 584.99$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.44 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f49…085bbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 78c | 288.46$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a3…2860backed SV Werder Bremen | 22c | 288$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8588…c3dcbacked SV Werder Bremen | 20c | 281$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…fe51backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 80c | 281$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked SV Werder Bremen | 23c | 217.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…a6ddbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 77c | 86.52$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf25a…d724backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 51c | 25.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087f…2ebfbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 77c | 17.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079c…a211backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 78c | 16.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde66…be48backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 77c | 15.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 77c | 13.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Under won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.