Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4966617d6878894cdf0d42df90481f36b3b1c120b7cdea9be2ffa7ba13ed358f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,353 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Over | 78c | 4,360$3,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.19 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 77c | 2,034$1,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.83 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Under | 18c | 972.14$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.8 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Under | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 22c | 543$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.46 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 79c | 518.99$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.99 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 22c | 407.56$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.27 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 21c | 399.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 78c | 358.97$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 20c | 355.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…d142backed Under | 26c | 304$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fad…948fbacked Over | 74c | 304$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 22c | 300.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd491…60f0backed Over | 77c | 292.2$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd20c…2a96backed Under | 23c | 292.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 22c | 133.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 78c | 128.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa00…fd56backed Under | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 22c | 98.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb1…6b78backed Under | 23c | 96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 20c | 91.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 79c | 76.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed Under | 20c | 75.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 23c | 70.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 22c | 69.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…e49cbacked Under | 22c | 65.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 79c | 63.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 77c | 62.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 22c | 54.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 19c | 52.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 22c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 79c | 50.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e0…375abacked Over | 78c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4f…07dcbacked Over | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c76…3006backed Over | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…4334backed Over | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 76c | 25.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…7605backed Over | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…f199backed Over | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8b…35cdbacked Over | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Under won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.