Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87718d2e161ea1d4f44876e74e96acbf9eca782f3d5e18e77b1838b6a44624ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,214 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 2,927$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.03 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 40c | 696.52$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.6 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Yes | 33c | 440$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.2 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Yes | 33c | 359.21$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.05 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 59c | 339.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x142e…f6e4backed Yes | 59c | 308.47$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…e592backed Yes | 65c | 307.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.57 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 57c | 287.38$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.64 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 41c | 265.47$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.63 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 35c | 231.97$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.51 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Yes | 45c | 229.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 19c | 173.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.54 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 12c | 155.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 65c | 153.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 33c | 144.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.16 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 41c | 127$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 52c | 113.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 70c | 112$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 41c | 103.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 40c | 100.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…1d90backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab9b…3483backed Yes | 48c | 91.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed No | 30c | 77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed No | 40c | 66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed Yes | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd9…3dadbacked Yes | 60c | 64.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed No | 41c | 58.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed No | 43c | 55.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7322…8e2fbacked Yes | 60c | 42.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff6…4921backed Yes | 58c | 37.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 70c | 37.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 53c | 36.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Yes | 75c | 28.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed No | 69c | 22.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Yes | 60c | 21.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Yes | 77c | 20.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01b…24b8backed No | 75c | 17.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Under won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.