Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8485f92b69859d0b4e42c44bc785f7f20d241e04a77d1c7b49b1f453a7c89e01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,258 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd29…77aebacked Over | 51c | 61,528$31,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,379.34 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 36,193$18,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,015.8 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 14,041$6,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,160.81 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e1…cf7bbacked Under | 48c | 3,843$1,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 3,232$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.27 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 29c | 962.17$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.37 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 77c | 916.03$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.83 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 30c | 876.18$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.62 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 783.52$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.95 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed Under | 74c | 673.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.86 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 14c | 518$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 33c | 428$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.24 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 50c | 314.42$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.79 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 69c | 261.39$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bae…e6c5backed Over | 31c | 258.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 32c | 252.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 68c | 249.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 68c | 216.18$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.18 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 33c | 214$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 32c | 197$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 30c | 179.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 66c | 170.88$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 50c | 122.51$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6250…8707backed Under | 71c | 116.61$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…6e5dbacked Over | 34c | 105.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 31c | 93.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0478…3faabacked Under | 49c | 87.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…a7c1backed Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 51c | 73.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4293…792fbacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 27c | 62.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…013fbacked Under | 50c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 36c | 47.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Under | 49c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…ade4backed Under | 49c | 33.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 48c | 24.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 68c | 23.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed Under | 78c | 21.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Under won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.