Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81a4d732577510e5a366db61e631437bf0c00e78aa691e5ef914a9c5fefebcb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,919 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 4,436$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,632.34 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Over | 66c | 3,076$2,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.31 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 59c | 1,691$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.28 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 9c | 1,336$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.01 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Under | 35c | 1,307$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.29 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Under | 35c | 1,222$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.82 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x158d…9c64backed Over | 61c | 976.1$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 65c | 787.82$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.24 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ff…d7afbacked Over | 34c | 485.76$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 79c | 447.92$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 4c | 422.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 66c | 378.18$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.17 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 369.25$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.98 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 35c | 272.14$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 67c | 236.17$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.41 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…0b17backed Over | 65c | 137.36$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…b99abacked Under | 35c | 113.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 67c | 113.25$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 29c | 105.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 181 | 25.4%46 W · 135 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…1678backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 12c | 99.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.67 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 11c | 91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Over | 60c | 89.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 36c | 84.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…e8acbacked Over | 18c | 65.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fb…d507backed Over | 22c | 63.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617e…4814backed Over | 22c | 63.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over | 34c | 58.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 64c | 50.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 120 | 35.8%43 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Over | 43c | 50.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Under | 40c | 49.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 32c | 46.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…5beabacked Under | 40c | 42.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Over | 65c | 41.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 80c | 37.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8601…eca3backed Over | 67c | 37.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…288dbacked Under | 69c | 36.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 60c | 33.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 70c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 66c | 28.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.