Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88aaaa396135e74dacbb19576a459e64b3c22bd61a720d2bfc72faad785f4596
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,370 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 56c | 4,583$2,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,554.03 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Yes | 42c | 2,600$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.8 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…aad0backed Yes | 43c | 1,896$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 57c | 1,371$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.76 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked No | 50c | 843.61$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.45 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked No | 2c | 699.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed Yes | 53c | 561.1$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 51c | 385.9$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.14 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked No | 57c | 335.89$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.46 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…132abacked No | 47c | 330$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 47c | 294.4$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.1 | 460 | 47.4%218 W · 242 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Yes | 39c | 267.63$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.55 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d63…ed55backed Yes | 39c | 259.36$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 50c | 254.68$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.16 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Yes | 51c | 233.24$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.29 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…3c89backed Yes | 51c | 215$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a5…2cbdbacked No | 49c | 213.12$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Yes | 50c | 202.69$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.51 | 125 | 65.6%82 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed No | 50c | 198.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…31e3backed Yes | 52c | 195.66$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…5ebebacked Yes | 52c | 190.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9e…10bebacked Yes | 52c | 190.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…0b17backed Yes | 52c | 190.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…2020backed Yes | 52c | 186.66$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked No | 57c | 168.54$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 52c | 162.03$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 120 | 35.8%43 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…59c2backed No | 50c | 157.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 50c | 138.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ce…286abacked Yes | 40c | 126.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 46c | 116.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 48c | 113.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…c2f1backed Yes | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9095…89bcbacked No | 49c | 109.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Yes | 48c | 103.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095e…abc5backed No | 50c | 101.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d76…6fd4backed Yes | 51c | 97.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 50c | 97.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff8…942fbacked Yes | 51c | 97.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked Yes | 52c | 95.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201b…9795backed Yes | 51c | 89.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 53c | 85.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed No | 50c | 69.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 53c | 69.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…a9a9backed No | 49c | 60.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…b378backed Yes | 52c | 57.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9c…c6debacked Yes | 51c | 50.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…1d90backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…2c2cbacked Yes | 54c | 49.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3999…c2bbbacked Yes | 52c | 49.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Yes | 76c | 48.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes | 42c | 47.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed No | 48c | 45.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe831…e4dabacked Yes | 45c | 44.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 52c | 38.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 59c | 32.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b3…d6efbacked Yes | 52c | 28.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…aeaabacked Yes | 54c | 27.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…bddebacked No | 50c | 24.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…a03cbacked No | 48c | 24.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…336dbacked No | 49c | 22.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aaf…910fbacked Yes | 50c | 21.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed No | 58c | 20.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…288dbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.