Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c46d649237e205f3496b235cfb53af00c69149dac393bf004a3445a4dd049b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,261 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 1,056$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.81 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 73c | 545.78$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.55 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x688e…148dbacked Over | 60c | 330.53$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 29c | 306.76$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…1d41backed Over | 59c | 291.91$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 25c | 284.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 460 | 47.4%218 W · 242 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Over | 75c | 264.92$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bce…a18cbacked Over | 73c | 261.44$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 31c | 222.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 33c | 197.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 71c | 168.44$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 148.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 71c | 139.83$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Under | 38c | 130.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…4a85backed Under | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…33fbbacked Over | 72c | 119.97$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb87…a64bbacked Over | 72c | 116.93$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 69c | 114.26$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 71c | 105.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed Over | 66c | 89.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Under | 29c | 85.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe3…949cbacked Under | 30c | 79.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 345 | 53.9%186 W · 159 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…21b8backed Over | 73c | 61.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Under | 26c | 49.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Over | 65c | 48.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95eb…4984backed Over | 73c | 45.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…5beabacked Over | 73c | 45.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 74c | 38.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x830a…ba19backed Over | 73c | 37.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 32c | 34.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 60c | 30.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +14.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Under | 36c | 29.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 188 | 58.5%110 W · 78 L | +16.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 73c | 27.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Over | 73c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…b9f9backed Over | 73c | 23.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5765…43a3backed Over | 68c | 23.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…078cbacked Over | 72c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd750…ce9cbacked Over | 74c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.