Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb78541010d25350b2538b0e7f7dd695cce9a613ea8b7ef72679a6cadfb9c9c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,133 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 3,960$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,927.31 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Under | 77c | 3,890$2,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,995.26 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Over | 24c | 2,207$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 1,447$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.72 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf277…9a5fbacked Under | 76c | 1,307$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.62 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Under | 53c | 1,113$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 25c | 979.42$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.5 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 74c | 858.99$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.65 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…24f0backed Under | 60c | 832.58$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.78 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 17c | 831.51$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.07 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 76c | 679.84$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.68 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Under | 76c | 596.61$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…1650backed Over | 24c | 583.75$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 23c | 535.79$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.56 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 76c | 507.74$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.88 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 76c | 499.81$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.86 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 31c | 497.27$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.99 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…dadfbacked Under | 60c | 490.48$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 71c | 463.04$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.42 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 26c | 449.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.49 | 460 | 47.4%218 W · 242 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 25c | 395.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.58 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 41c | 353.31$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.33 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Over | 41c | 326.48$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.62 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 25c | 266.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.82 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 27c | 263.31$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.48 | 385 | 47.8%184 W · 201 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 24c | 249.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.35 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…b945backed Over | 25c | 198.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 25c | 198.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.02 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 75c | 198.69$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.02 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4b…839fbacked Under | 76c | 194.68$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Over | 25c | 162.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.14 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…cea5backed Under | 51c | 154.29$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…a5f5backed Under | 75c | 137.97$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Under | 77c | 129.07$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 133 | 66.2%88 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…c65dbacked Under | 76c | 100.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 68cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Under | 76c | 97.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 54c | 95.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…53bcbacked Under | 75c | 90.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 78cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked Over | 26c | 76.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…3bd4backed Under | 33c | 75.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 25c | 71.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0a…caf5backed Under | 55c | 63.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Under | 33c | 60.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201b…9795backed Under | 33c | 60.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Over | 67c | 59.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 188 | 58.5%110 W · 78 L | +16.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…19e1backed Under | 76c | 52.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…6e9dbacked Under | 75c | 51.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 65cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Under | 78c | 49.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…7dc3backed Over | 25c | 46.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +178.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 26c | 46.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.27per pick | 42cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 23c | 44.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Under | 73c | 43.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5370…84adbacked Under | 77c | 42.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 28c | 39.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Under | 76c | 39.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Under | 77c | 38.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 70c | 28.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 79c | 25.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8601…eca3backed Over | 68c | 20.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…8550backed Under | 71c | 17.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 75c | 14.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.