Serie A · resolved market
Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa082170a386f94bad7ff9ef7b9b8921c1b6841bcf56adc486c465a8bb395ab90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ACF Fiorentinaof ACF Fiorentina, US Cremonese
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,717 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec59…bb35backed US Cremonese | 75c | 2,017$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.42 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed ACF Fiorentina | 26c | 1,911$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.07 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked ACF Fiorentina | 44c | 1,742$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.44 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed US Cremonese | 65c | 1,158$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.95 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked US Cremonese | 25c | 728.71$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.84 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…8573backed US Cremonese | 75c | 590$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b9…12e4backed ACF Fiorentina | 25c | 586.13$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…d22bbacked ACF Fiorentina | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed ACF Fiorentina | 25c | 169.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.98 | 460 | 47.4%218 W · 242 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed US Cremonese | 25c | 158.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 120 | 35.8%43 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed ACF Fiorentina | 25c | 153.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +196.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…e227backed US Cremonese | 76c | 131.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed ACF Fiorentina | 26c | 111.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.74 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed ACF Fiorentina | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked US Cremonese | 75c | 91.38$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed ACF Fiorentina | 20c | 81.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 162 | 19.1%31 W · 131 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked US Cremonese | 74c | 80.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked US Cremonese | 26c | 77.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x277e…259ebacked ACF Fiorentina | 27c | 73.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…c67dbacked US Cremonese | 75c | 71.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +146.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked US Cremonese | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed ACF Fiorentina | 53c | 58.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed US Cremonese | 46c | 41.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd05e…f1e9backed ACF Fiorentina | 76c | 32.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…b945backed US Cremonese | 76c | 32.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562c…e035backed US Cremonese | 76c | 30.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed US Cremonese | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed US Cremonese | 76c | 21.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed US Cremonese | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…a5ccbacked US Cremonese | 76c | 19.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed US Cremonese | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)this page
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.