Fifa International · resolved market
Montenegro vs. Slovenia: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19b44cfb14acc9997f0b8c4afa4767d8a2ee704ba16bf3650e31178d37ebc4ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 1,517$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.67 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 9c | 1,250$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.5 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 1,239$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.27 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…98e9backed Over | 68c | 993.89$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 9c | 611.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.11 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 27c | 607.67$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.26 | 356 | 58.7%209 W · 147 L | +35.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 3c | 524$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 16c | 458.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.85 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +8.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.62 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked Over | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Over | 69c | 257.07$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 47c | 213.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.72 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 32c | 170.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 11c | 170.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.66 | 289 | 64.4%186 W · 103 L | +42.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 43c | 170.26$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 14c | 154.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.23 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +18.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…9200backed Over | 75c | 134.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Over | 41c | 115.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 154 | 48.1%74 W · 80 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 10c | 110.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.97 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 48c | 110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4820…c613backed Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 823 | 40.9%337 W · 486 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…04e4backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +15.0wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 33c | 90.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 41c | 88.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 414 | 51.4%213 W · 201 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 41c | 88.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…41cbbacked Over | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 165 | 35.2%58 W · 107 L | +15.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 70c | 83.17$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 293 | 43%126 W · 167 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a95…23cfbacked Under | 25c | 75.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 32cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab7…0409backed Under | 30c | 66.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5301backed Under | 75c | 53.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 71c | 45.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cc…2e39backed Over | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 53c | 29.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 44c | 23.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…3bbdbacked Under | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dda…35d5backed Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Montenegro vs. Slovenia: O/U 4.5this page
- Montenegro vs. Slovenia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Montenegro vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Montenegro vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Montenegro vs. Slovenia: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Montenegro (-2.5)Slovenia won
- Spread: Slovenia (-1.5)Montenegro won
- Spread: Slovenia (-2.5)Montenegro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.