La Liga · resolved market
Real Valladolid CF vs. Real Zaragoza: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e5651db175f3d912a69048014f1da0900d62b549c4384e470ec48cde90fded2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 4,848$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,381.21 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 49c | 4,081$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.29 | 200 | 54%108 W · 92 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 55c | 1,591$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.11 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 43c | 520.13$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.61 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 70c | 514.8$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.8 | 21 | 95.2%20 W · 1 L | +5.4wins | +0.26per pick | 69cpaid | +51%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xff1a…4475backed Over | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…ffbebacked Over | 53c | 400.65$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.8 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…2c33backed Over | 51c | 392.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.55 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…3fb8backed Under | 10c | 263.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 229 | 39.3%90 W · 139 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 180.44$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 71c | 154.8$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 28c | 138.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 354 | 42.7%151 W · 203 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 70c | 99.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde6b…7178backed Over | 72c | 53.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Over | 64c | 29.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Under | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Valladolid CF vs. Real Zaragoza: O/U 1.5this page
- Real Valladolid CF vs. Real Zaragoza: O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Valladolid CF vs. Real Zaragoza: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Valladolid CF vs. Real Zaragoza: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Real Zaragoza (-1.5)Real Valladolid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.