Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Arouca vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8df0ddab5f3f259ffa718167841bf1fb5e4624439fc2180b2d36444906720e31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 987.64$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.17 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 43c | 830.81$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.19 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 407.08$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.13 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 23c | 297.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 109 | 20.2%22 W · 87 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 71c | 265$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…bac6backed Over | 57c | 230$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.24per pick | 56cpaid | -50%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 14c | 228.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 51c | 170$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…609fbacked Under | 10c | 154.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 55c | 102.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 210 | 36.7%77 W · 133 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 258 | 59.7%154 W · 104 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Under | 28c | 68.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 39c | 53.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 40c | 52.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 70.6%60 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Over | 42c | 45.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Over | 78c | 40.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 65c | 38.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 55c | 37.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…1db8backed Over | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…ad2fbacked Over | 41c | 28.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Over | 42c | 26.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9089…aafebacked Under | 61c | 20.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 87 | 82.8%72 W · 15 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Arouca vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Arouca vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CD Santa Clara (-1.5)FC Arouca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.