La Liga · resolved market
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2b2c14acbb594aa7d08648eaec99cc5d43ebad8afb3d74b591669d61871d2e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 5,297$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,023.34 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Over | 61c | 3,043$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 70c | 1,538$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.05 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 14c | 1,466$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.24 | 571 | 39.2%224 W · 347 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed Under | 6c | 1,441$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.63 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +5.7wins | +0.33per pick | 43cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 19c | 950.01$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.45 | 354 | 42.7%151 W · 203 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…3053backed Under | 13c | 894.85$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Under | 13c | 709.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.66 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 7c | 314.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 616 | 57.8%356 W · 260 L | +42.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Under | 10c | 249.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed Over | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 66c | 138.82$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ac…d636backed Under | 20c | 138.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 17c | 109.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 281 | 38.8%109 W · 172 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 421 | 58%244 W · 177 L | +29.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 454 | 50%227 W · 227 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 35c | 78.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 66c | 69.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 596 | 55.4%330 W · 266 L | +31.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Over | 64c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 66c | 54.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 75c | 51.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 188 | 42%79 W · 109 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 73c | 40.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 74c | 40.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ab…83f5backed Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 48 | 77.1%37 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b45…9f5bbacked Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 70c | 27.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 74c | 25.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Over | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d13…b939backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Over | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5this page
- RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Under won
- RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RCD Mallorca (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: RCD Mallorca (-2.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)RCD Mallorca won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)RCD Mallorca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.