Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Preußen Münster vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28476baac6d9d8aa1a0adb7c8537ea72ece0f5ff9f14d2d5c7209112032dca23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 72c | 2,660$1,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.11 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Under | 19c | 2,078$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,683.18 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…13b5backed Under | 43c | 1,005$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…c0fabacked Over | 57c | 992.8$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 38c | 939.98$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.88 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 39c | 808.12$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.95 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 35c | 771.92$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.92 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…07a9backed Under | 41c | 482.93$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 59c | 482.93$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.93 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 54c | 438.98$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.23 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 39c | 327.87$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee43…ae9dbacked Over | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 66c | 311.24$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.39 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Over | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 40c | 176.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 66c | 118.89$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 61c | 106.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 65c | 91.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 36c | 71.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 62c | 67.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Over | 69c | 65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 64c | 57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 65c | 52.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 60c | 47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 50c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 72c | 45.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 62c | 39.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 65c | 34.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 41c | 34.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 61c | 30.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 64c | 29.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 64c | 29.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 64c | 29.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 64c | 29.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 65c | 28.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 65c | 28.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Over | 62c | 26.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 60c | 25.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 61c | 24.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a5…7f75backed Over | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a24…f55dbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…4a14backed Over | 78c | 12.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Preußen Münster vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5this page
- SC Preußen Münster vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Preußen Münster (-1.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-1.5)SC Preußen Münster won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.