Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe1e41003990f8df655309717bcc24a0ff3ba4ca859f41f2b5a6fdfeed0bba09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 25c | 206.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 197.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 75c | 177.8$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 158.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 29c | 144.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 39c | 119.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 113.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…3538backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 31c | 99.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…ecd4backed Yes | 33c | 97.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 97.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 81.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 79.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 58c | 78.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed No | 36c | 77.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 72c | 77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…dd19backed Yes | 28c | 71.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 71.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81c…d3cbbacked Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be4…500fbacked Yes | 26c | 62.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 60.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 59.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 26c | 58.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 60c | 55.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 53.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 51.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 47c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 32c | 50.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 50.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…32bebacked Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3630…7d24backed No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 67c | 49.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x400f…917abacked No | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe536…41b6backed No | 74c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 57c | 36.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 34.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 70c | 30.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 69c | 26.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 76c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 55c | 23.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1696…089cbacked No | 71c | 14.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 40°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 41°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.