Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbba4791d56b517b34c16d58363364880fa3e5b24ac9b68e9d1db3c4b0f6b0ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 65c | 534.86$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.45 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 22c | 456.53$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.73 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 22c | 250.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.82 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 208$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 68c | 198.4$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.27 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 184.33$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 29c | 181.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 181.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 79c | 149.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 139.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 137.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.78 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 136.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 124.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 70c | 117.64$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 78c | 115.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.52 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 10c | 107.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 53c | 86.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked No | 76c | 82.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 79.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 73.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 37c | 67.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed No | 75c | 66.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…dd19backed Yes | 31c | 64.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 33c | 63.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 48c | 61.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 33c | 60.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c2…9516backed Yes | 22c | 59.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 43c | 58.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 71c | 55.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 55.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…f4d7backed No | 78c | 54.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 71c | 54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 77c | 50.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…32bebacked Yes | 27c | 49.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…eeb0backed No | 78c | 47.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 55c | 47.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 77c | 46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 25c | 43.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 67c | 41.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 44c | 41.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 49c | 40.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 74c | 39.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 70c | 37.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 69c | 36.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 46c | 36.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…3538backed No | 41c | 31.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked No | 75c | 30.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 40c | 30.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c1…12cebacked Yes | 42c | 26.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 63c | 26.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 66c | 24.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 57c | 21.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 79c | 20.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 62c | 18.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 72c | 18.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…31b0backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 75c | 14.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 40°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 41°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.