Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab5d76a9691b6debc0dce95ec263780471451d7bc35d0da11ffb869b38c55a4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 315.44$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 74c | 282.67$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 256.92$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 242$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 63c | 233.39$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.92 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 17c | 231.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 66c | 228.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 199.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 43c | 184.44$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.24 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 64c | 180$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.9 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 142.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 17c | 141.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 139.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 130$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 36c | 129.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.54 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 127$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 44c | 126.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 55c | 124.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 34c | 123.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 54c | 114.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 58c | 104.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 97.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 83.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 54c | 70.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 17c | 67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…6a03backed Yes | 52c | 62.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 40c | 62.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 28c | 61.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1840…03b1backed Yes | 51c | 58.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 57.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 46c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 30c | 52.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 71c | 51.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 45c | 50.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 64c | 48.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 32c | 45.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 42c | 45.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 48c | 44.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 56c | 43.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 51c | 42.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 41c | 40.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 40c | 40.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 59c | 38.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 51c | 37.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…e85ebacked Yes | 54c | 37.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059f…d749backed No | 44c | 36.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 55c | 35.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 64c | 35.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 55c | 32.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 32.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…ba19backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 48c | 28.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 58c | 27.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 57c | 27.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 69c | 25.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 47c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 50c | 23.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fb…4af5backed No | 52c | 22.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 71c | 22.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 61c | 20.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 58c | 20.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…f3d2backed Yes | 53c | 19.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 51c | 19.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd26…7de1backed Yes | 60c | 16.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.