TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf06b…f629

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
79
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Commodities, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 52 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weatherlast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT4932.7%16 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$31.95
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.95
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.6
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+203%+$26.79
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$29.6
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.6
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$8.5
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.2
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.2
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.59
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$24.4
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.6
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.79
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.6
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.2
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$18.9
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$13.85
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+156.4%+$39.1
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+35.1%+$4.59
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+29.9%+$24.96
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+94.6%+$22.2
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$114.18
Meteora FDV above $4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 9 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+45.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 22, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+46.7%+$29.88
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.19
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$12.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.