Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c9fc03a4f38dec61345f968a428ffacdea2a771222e7f6d8d2e14230d6c6eec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 343.3$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.81 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 290.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 76c | 244.82$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 30c | 211.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 203.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 197$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 193.23$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 24c | 190.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 160$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 149.72$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 68c | 146.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 72c | 146$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 142.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 139.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 138.68$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 28c | 126.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 25c | 120.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 118$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 20c | 109.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 71c | 105.55$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 105.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 98.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 72c | 95.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 26c | 94.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 29c | 91.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 29c | 79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 71c | 79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 20c | 76.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…9a6bbacked No | 73c | 68.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 68.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 27c | 67.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 30c | 62.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b17…ab15backed No | 66c | 60.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 26c | 57.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 28c | 52.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 52.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 36c | 48.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 44.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 23c | 44.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 76c | 42.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 31c | 42.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 38.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 70c | 35.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 33.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 28.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 27.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 72c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 72c | 19.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3f…4851backed No | 69c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec1…b807backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 16.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed No | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or higher on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.