Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcacb141da5e1fadd2ee1663b698cc43bee398ea67f352cfb1c23bcb8d715fe6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 33c | 1,233$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.04 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 449.02$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.14 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 446.48$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 343.43$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.69 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 292.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 64c | 242.09$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.57 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 67c | 242$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.14 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 177.63$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.58 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 77c | 166.05$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 7c | 157.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 11c | 151.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 35c | 145.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.23 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 127.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 32c | 123.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 42c | 119$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 111.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 40c | 110$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 106.48$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 98.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 96.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 22c | 88.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 82.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 82.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 76.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 74c | 76.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 50c | 73.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 50c | 73.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…d76abacked No | 67c | 68.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 67.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 20c | 62.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…0ca2backed No | 62c | 61.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 49c | 61.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 40c | 60.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 53c | 56.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…3de5backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 58c | 44.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 57c | 41.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 56c | 41.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 52c | 41.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2c…3550backed Yes | 73c | 41.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 38.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed No | 69c | 38.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 37.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 64c | 36.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 59c | 33.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 79c | 31.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 27.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 41c | 26.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 26.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 58c | 26.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc5…e8f2backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 57c | 22.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 67c | 19.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 58c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…e3babacked Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or higher on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.