Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee0d9bcacab8880d63b1b44f24c8672b88718e0a935ff16fef2cc920bc596e69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $265,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $265,179 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 326 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 36c | 20,769$7,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,321.3 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 17c | 16,454$2,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,853.26 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 59c | 11,756$6,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,913.09 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 38c | 11,080$4,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,880.79 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 42c | 9,311$3,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,424.74 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 40c | 7,500$3,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,465 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 49c | 7,152$3,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,511.54 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…81c3backed No | 71c | 7,000$4,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,969.99 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…a623backed Yes | 65c | 6,602$4,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,342.69 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 26c | 5,869$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.21 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 41c | 5,173$2,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,075.57 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 48c | 5,012$2,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,597.26 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 36c | 4,686$1,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,676.27 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed No | 9c | 4,441$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.1 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 57c | 4,218$2,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,383.38 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…b8f5backed No | 1c | 4,217$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 67c | 3,880$2,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,583.61 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed No | 33c | 3,760$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.58 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed No | 37c | 3,586$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.04 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed No | 37c | 3,113$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.68 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked Yes | 46c | 3,038$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,628.82 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 39c | 3,000$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.42 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 26c | 2,943$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.79 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 57c | 2,810$1,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.6 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41df…4b70backed No | 69c | 2,419$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.22 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…e48fbacked No | 69c | 2,414$1,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…2a6ebacked No | 69c | 2,171$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.21 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 2,160$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 26c | 2,159$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.44 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 24c | 2,142$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.69 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 2,134$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.86 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed No | 25c | 2,026$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabed…3e92backed No | 1c | 1,973$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed Yes | 71c | 1,965$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.99 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…cf60backed No | 39c | 1,917$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…b57fbacked No | 67c | 1,911$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf59d…bb41backed No | 18c | 1,889$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.62 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 41c | 1,848$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.69 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 6c | 1,836$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.33 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes | 58c | 1,783$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.86 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 38c | 1,740$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.5 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed No | 20c | 1,700$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8323…6bb8backed No | 2c | 1,679$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5212…b762backed No | 33c | 1,627$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 2c | 1,506$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 1,468$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 5c | 1,371$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c40…3d64backed No | 1c | 1,350$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6daf…711cbacked No | 2c | 1,273$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e6…1582backed No | 48c | 1,261$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.88 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed Yes | 45c | 1,251$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.99 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 59c | 1,215$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.01 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 3c | 1,213$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 67c | 1,140$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.76 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb091…2ba7backed No | 1c | 1,136$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…6600backed No | 1c | 1,091$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a05…1b60backed Yes | 69c | 1,052$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d30…15d9backed No | 5c | 1,015$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…575fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,010$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…7551backed Yes | 51c | 977.15$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 60c | 972.23$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.74 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…b02ebacked Yes | 65c | 964.33$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…b363backed Yes | 31c | 956.41$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…de48backed No | 54c | 954.25$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f64…b429backed No | 55c | 917.35$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…386ebacked No | 54c | 908.91$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…58edbacked Yes | 56c | 885.66$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.31 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5835…3beebacked No | 10c | 881.67$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 55c | 838.11$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.81 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 40c | 834$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.42 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 21c | 826.28$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.93 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed No | 51c | 799.99$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…eb64backed No | 69c | 777.62$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e23…8579backed No | 58c | 762.31$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 53c | 751.69$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.85 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 750.36$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.4 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked Yes | 44c | 735.27$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.09 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed No | 48c | 727.49$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.92 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 702.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab01…881abacked Yes | 65c | 670.38$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 656.95$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…5d80backed No | 67c | 620.95$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.97 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…6e09backed Yes | 49c | 608.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d62…27e0backed Yes | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 582.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…c27ebacked No | 52c | 574.01$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb505…5381backed No | 2c | 564.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 34c | 549.97$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.98 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 31c | 542.94$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.06 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ac…3c1fbacked Yes | 29c | 530.03$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9db…d937backed No | 16c | 520$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +158.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 65c | 475.34$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.8 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 39c | 467.48$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.8 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…3245backed No | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…7552backed No | 62c | 463.88$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.86 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…6603backed Yes | 66c | 453.97$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.97 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 36c | 440.08$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.15 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 15, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.