Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95989de6ec40501a96a67adfba0e3fe80fcb2d0963beb7a6ea36b7b2dc7c5c27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,539 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…13cdbacked No | 12c | 1,044$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 924$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 13c | 854.65$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.51 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 9c | 475.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…8721backed No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 14c | 225.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 12c | 210$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10c6…19b6backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f60…3a16backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd3…6550backed No | 11c | 106.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -82%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked Yes | 73c | 73.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 22c | 58.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 69c | 34.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…d7c3backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…03b1backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…3307backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…c94abacked Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +225.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.