Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe94ab06ef95d214fe80954253648430e35b1916578e88f61e09f27fc697992be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 8c | 9,852$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.99 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 2,861$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.91 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 12c | 2,763$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.85 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,750$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 10c | 1,531$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 10c | 1,308$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.91 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 841.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 12c | 420.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 416.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6c…e35fbacked Yes | 4c | 400.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 393.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 78c | 392.5$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.08 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed Yes | 26c | 391.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 354$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d6…f60dbacked Yes | 11c | 266.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 10c | 210.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 9c | 204.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 10c | 131.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 21c | 130$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9798backed Yes | 11c | 128.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 114.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…c9d5backed Yes | 20c | 101.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x947c…79b5backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff73…a11dbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 80c | 97.62$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 73c | 79.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 80c | 71.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 78c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…de38backed Yes | 20c | 54.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89c…fc89backed Yes | 21c | 52.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e23…8579backed No | 77c | 42.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 79c | 39.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 80c | 29.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…d7c3backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…03b1backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedd2…1e2fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.